A Leg Up

Kentucky Derby 138 Future Pool; When Nothing Means Something

2012-02-10T06:31:00.000-05:00

With the first of three Kentucky Derby Future Poolsoffered this weekend, it's a good time to share a somewhat informed wageringdecision or better yet, one that requires little to no information at all.

First and foremost, we need to understand that theFuture Pool 1) ties up a portion of your betting money for 12 weeks without areturn and 2) the difficulty of picking a winner just minutes before post is amplified indefinitely when trying to turn the same trick three months inadvance. So if you don't mind taking a portion of what you bet and leaving iton the shelf for weeks while realizing that your betting choice(s) may not even makethe starting gate, then go ahead and wager away this weekend.

The timing of this year's Future Pool #1 is curiousto say the least. The Hutcheson Stakes is the lone prep race this weekend thatmay possibly influence your future bet(s). And besides, the Hutcheson, run atseven furlongs, is hardly a bellwether for Derby success. So any and all wagersare based on your perceptions of what is to come or the limited reality ofseveral early prep races. In either case, what you don't know is just asimportant as what you do know - which is close to nothing.

Here's the whole bunch of nothing from the earlypreps:

Out of Bounds - sat a perfect trip behind anextremely fast pace in the Sham and beat only four rivals; so what
Mr. Bowling - won over a crowded Lecomte Stakesfield that started fast and ended slow; Fair Grounds hasn't produced a decent Derby finisher in years
Algorithms - won in the Gulfstream slop while takingthe Holy Bull Stakes over last year's champion two-year-old, Hansen; a wetsurface win is a plus, but how good is Hansen really?
Alpha - took the Withers in what amounted to a JVscrimmage; might come out of New York as the dominant horse; you'll have to goback to Funny Cide to find the last New York-based Derby winner
Battle Hardened - who really isn't and won a stakesas a maiden; you'll have to ask, late-maiden monster or winner of extremelysoft Sam Davis field?
I'll Have Another - probably the most perplexingprep winner to date; came off a six-month layoff to win going away versus whatappeared to be a very good Robert Lewis Stakes field

The surest thing left behind by these winners is the questions that outnumber any answers, like: How does beatingfive opponents translate to beating 19 others? Will any horse ever leaveLouisiana ready to pounce in Kentucky? How much did I'll Have Another improveor did he catch an overrated field ripe for the taking?

The little somethings we know from these do notinstall enough confidence in me (and probably shouldn't instill such confidencein you) to make a Future play this time around. In this case revel in yourignorance and take a pass or....take the field.

Consider that taking the field gives you almost 400options versus the pittance of choosing one or a few from 23.By my account, all odds on individual choices would have to be over 100-1 togarner the appropriate risk-reward. Also consider that "all other" Derbynominees will probably land you around even money or a 100% return on yourinvestment.

Now consider that at a casino you get a littleunder a 50-50 chance when picking one of the two main roulette wheel colors(black or red) with the same even money return. (Of course there are twogreen spots on the wheel to give the house their little edge.) In the Derbypool it is your 400 "all other" choices vs. 23 individuals for the possibility of an almost certain even money pay off.

Finally, you don't need to know anything about any of the "allothers" to determine which one will win the Derby. And if you can getanything close to even money, it's worth your time and money to take a verysafe and profitable shot at this year's Derby Future Pool #1.

Holy Bull Stakes=Official Kickoff to Kentucky Derby Trail

2012-01-29T13:06:00.000-05:00

Is there really an official start to those owners, trainers and jockeys seeking a blanket of roses on the first Saturday in May? Sure...maybe...If you want to go all the way back to the breeding shed, breaking rings, auction houses, etc. etc. There is far too much that goes into bringing a horse from the farm to the track that yours truly knows nothing about and means so much at every step in turning an awkward yearling into a championship caliber Thoroughbred. The beginning, then, can be stated and restated in many different ways. For my purposes the trail to Kentucky Derby 138 starts today with the Holy Bull.

Why, you ask the Holy Bull?

The track - Gulfstream Park, which has helped produce two Derby winners and several other contenders in the last seven years. The only other track to produce such consistency recently is Oaklawn Park.
The purse - $400,000 is big for a Grade III stakes and necessary for owners looking to get into the Derby starting gate. With over 600 horses entered every year for the Triple Crown and only 20 allowed into the Churchill starting gate based on graded stakes earnings, horses usually need to earn between $175,000 to $225,000 to make the cut. Today's winner's share is $240,000, which is overkill for Hansen due to his Breeders' Cup Juvenile win. Any other of the five starters just about guarantee's its human connections a Derby starter with a win.
The timing - for 21st century trainers, who like lots of rest in between starts, Gulfstream's major Derby prep races are nicely spaced at about a month apart. The Florida Derby is scheduled five weeks out from the Run for the Roses.

With all this being said, I am quite surprised with only six starters in today's Holy Bull. Hansen is the obvious standout, but what if he needs a race and owner/trainer aren't all that concerned with winning today? Go luck finding another to take top honors.

If pressed, I'd go with Todd Pletcher's Algorithms. He's well-bred top and bottom, two-for-two and most importantly he won a sprint from off the pace at Gulfstream, which is almost unheard of. Even just a quick glance at the Holy Bull's past performances will tell you that just about any of these can or will vie for the lead. Johnny Velazquez doesn't ride here for Pletcher, but Javier Castellano is having another great meet down south and always rides well for Pletcher.

With plenty of twist and turns ahead on our way to Kentucky Derby 138, I will try to keep pace each Sunday here at my home blog, while also contributing to my Derby Wars blog at Horse Racing Nation on Saturdays. Hope to see you here or there each of the next 14 weeks...

War Games

2011-11-18T20:59:00.001-05:00

For those frequent or more likely infrequent visitors of this blog know I took sort of a sabbatical leave from writing from mid-summer to the Breeder's Cup. This was mostly by design - a break away. Starting this weekend I will be devoting most of my Thoroughbred horse writing time to the blog dedicated to Derby Wars - a new online horse playing tournament site. If you click on the link, you'll see for yourself how cool it is.

My blog can currently be found at Horse Racing Nation's Blogroll. Within the next month or so the Tales from the Battle Field blog will move over permanently to Derby Wars. Each Friday I'll preview some of the races in the upcoming weekend's tournaments and on Sunday I'll provide a wrap up on some of the contests going-ons.

Thanks for stopping by through the intermittent blogs to come back again and read my Thoroughbred musings. Occasionally I'll post here, but the majority of my writing will be over at Derby Wars.

Breeders' Cup Saturday Picks

2011-11-04T23:59:00.003-04:00

This post is only three months in the making...(sorry school takes over once September comes)...

My man Turk said it best, "Go big or go home," that is playing at least one big bet in hopes of hitting a four-figure or better pay out, instead of nickel and diming yourself with a bunch of small bets that either have little chance or promise too small of a return given the risk. I'm actually going to give a big bet, for me, in Churchill's early Pick Four. Playing big is relative; I'm no whale, but I'm also not a $2 better either.

Before I get to the bets, let me provide two simple insights, which I hope will help with all your Breeders' Cup wagers.

This is going to sound too simple, but...over the last three Breeders' Cup days, 17 out 20 winners either won or finished second in their previous race. The only exceptions were Shared Account, 2010 Filly and Mare Turf, who finished fifth in her previous race; Chamberlain Bridge, 2010 Turf Sprint winner, fourth; and Dakota Phone, 2010 Dirt Mile winner, third.
Up close on both dirt and turf is paying dividends to horses, jockeys and bettors at Churchill during its first four days of racing. Most horses that are within a few lengths of the lead along the backstretch, turning for home and through the stretch are coming in the money. The only caveats were the Filly and Mare Turf and two turn races on the dirt, which have been equally open to stalkers as well as front runners. What does this mean? Give those pace-setters and pace-pressers a little more of a look.

Starting with Race 4 - Juvenile Turf, I have fashioned an $80, 50-cent Pick 4. It would have been more because my first thought was to hit the ALL button in the first leg. But given the two points I just provided and watching how the Churchill tracks have been playing, I pared the first leg down to half the field and singled in the last leg, which may come back to haunt me.

In the Juvenile Turf, runners 2-4 all fit the close to the pace scenario and two out of the three finished first or second in their last start. After handicapping and then looking at the morning line, Shkspeare Shaliyah really jumped out at my at 15-1. He's run three solid races on three different types of turf and has room for improvement. Coalport gets in with lots of upside and also due to Wayne Catalano's recent hot hand. Majestic City deserves to be chalk, if his synthetic form translates well to the turf. And to even things off, I'll include all three of the outside runners, 12-14. Look I'm playing more than half the field, so I'm trying not to bore you too much with analysis.

In the Sprint, I'll again only keep a few runners off my slip. Those in the bet include defending champ, Big Drama because, well, he's the defending champ. It's hard to keep a horse with a six-race winning streak off the ticket, so Giant Ryan is on. The triumvirate of Jackson Bend, Force Freeze and Amazombie are included because it scares me too much to leave them off.

DRF writer Steve Crist says these races give him fits and ESPN.com's Jay Cronley says he can't pick winners of the turf sprints even after seeing the replay. No doubt, they are hard to handicap and get right. I'm going to take three that should be up front early, hoping at least one of them hold: Holiday for Kitten, Hoofit and Regally Ready. I'll toss in the closer, Perfect Officer just in case the pace-setters back up drastically.

In total contradiction to its title, there is only horse in this field who has won at the one-mile distance, Jersey Town, and that was almost a year ago. In convoluted fields just like this, it's either pony up to include the entire field - we can see here that I can't afford that - or single. If I'm alive, I'll be hoping Wilburn extends his consecutive win streak to four and brings me home just a small fortune.

So the 50-cent Pick Four ticket goes like this: 2-3-4-6-10-12-13-14/2-5-6-7-8/2-4-6-7/5

Rooting Against Yourself

2011-08-07T22:42:00.003-04:00

I'm sure I am not alone in this most self-depreciating of horse betting pastimes which includes:

precious time spent handicapping
a bet planned
a bet changed (usually my changes include betting less)
the results of the bet coming in or about to come to in

It's during this "about to" stage when a few handicappers among us start this contrarian practice of actually rooting against a horse you should have bet, but for some reason left off your tickets. While this can and does happen in just one race, for me, over the course of the last two weeks, it has played out over the four-race sequence of the Early and Late Pick 4s at Saratoga. This allows for a special sense of dread that builds to a crescendo through at least 90-minutes and four races (if you're alive to the last race). By the final race of the bet left behind or the horse left off the ticket that was originally planned; the win that would have been begins to unfold, you hope just won't.

On opening Saturday while in attendance at the Spa, I figured out a $48, 50-cent Early Pick 4. This would have been the most combinations for any Pick 4, I've ever played. Usually, to justify any Pick 4, I live by a rule of getting or betting one single in the sequence. This automatically keeps bets at or below the $48 mark I had planned three Saturdays ago.

The problem I had with the bet a few Saturdays ago was the 96 combinations and the fact that it was about to eat almost half of my budget for the day. So....I removed two horses and changed another while getting the bet down to $30.

I was out of it right off the bat on the bet I made because of one of the removals. With nothing to root for and too pissed off to bet anything else, I watched as the next two horses in the $48 bet won. I went for a walk and spent some time with the Mrs. at different parts of the track trying not to pay attention.

I arrived back at our seats just in time to see the fifth race kick off with none of my horses starting in contention. As the majestic beasts narrowed toward the stretch, one of my originally "bet" horses hit the line a nose in front of 11 others. A moment I should have been relishing was wasted. The net result was that my $18 saved turned into $750 lost. I vowed never to bet again.

I played just once more that day - a miserable, swallow attempt at a Pick 6.

My non-betting continued through the last two weeks until Sunday. With a day of rain in the Boston area, where I bet the world from my computer, I mapped out the Late Pick 4 at the Spa. It was to be 1-2-8-9/3/2-6-8/1-2-6-7 and would have cost me all of $24 for a 50-cent play. I balked. The 8 won at 7-1, the 3 romped as the single at 9-5, the 6 won at 17-1 beating the chalk by a nose, and I was left looking at four, probable Pick 4 payouts ranging from $3,000 to $1,000.

As we humans are apt to do - I started to think that my change in play two weeks ago and my non-play yesterday were more than just the shortsightedness of part-time handicapper. I started to believe them to be signs from God. In this relative, narcissistic view, The Great Almighty just wants me to stop doing this thing I love to do and move onto to something else more productive. (As if He doesn't have bigger matters to worry about). As I was siding with the omens in front of me, my cloud of doom seemed quite large and ready to rain down on me. Alive to four in the final leg - a bettor's dream or in this case nightmare.

Thankfully, I think, none of my four choices hit the line first. I sighed relief. I'm not sure why, but I did. Because isn't the point of all this that we do with figures, forms and tips, is win? Rooting for a loss feels like a loser's thing to do. I think I have to put up, shut up or just be more choosy with my bets. I think.

Whitney Stakes Pick 4

2011-08-06T11:48:00.000-04:00

My Jim Dandy Stakes Pick 4 was so bad (not one winner in the sequence) that I can't let such poor picking stand on my blog. Quick and dirty with little explanation, my Whitney Stakes Pick 4 follows:

Race 8 - a restricted affair going one mile on the turf looks more like a graded stakes race and has many stakes winners among the field. #1 Trix in the City has the potential to take them all the way around at a price. #5 Evading Template brings intentional flair to the event with Group 2 and 3 placings among her 11 starts across the ocean and Chad Brown takes up her training for the Spa debut. #9 Deluxe is another foreign import for the juggernaut, Juddmonte Farms, who placed in a Group 1 event last year.

Race 9 - The Grade 1 Test promises to be a handicapping test if you're not singling #6 Turbulent Descent - a four-time stakes winner including two Grade 1 scores. #2 American Lady has to be included due to trainer Bob Baffert's recent, red-hot hand. #3 Roman Treasure's jockey-trainer connections have scored at better than 50% the last two years and you can draw a line through her last race in which she stumbled out of the gate when beaten by several of these. #8 Her Smile, sure leave trainer Todd Pletcher off your ticket, I double-dog dare you. #9 Salty Strike gets on just in case a hot and contested pace ensues and no one is left to pick up the pieces.

Race 10 - For more about my Whitney analysis see my Thorofan piece. But like the Test you can choose to either spread far and wide or go with a single. I going with the later, singling Morning Line.

Race 11 is a wide open NY state breed race going 7 furlongs. 7 panels are usually tough races to handicap for the humans and tough races to win for the equines. I'm gong with three entrants that have experience going seven furlongs or a bit longer. They are #3 Seek to Destroy, #11 Southbeach Sandy and #12 Wee Freudian - who should get a bit look adding blinkers for the first time; a move trainer Richard Schosberg has won with 25% of the time the last two years.

So for a 50-cent base bet, my ticket looks like this 1-5-9/2-3-6-8-9/3/3-11-12 for $22.50.

Good luck with all your wagers!

Jim Dandy 50-Cent Pick 4

2011-07-30T09:26:00.000-04:00

So the 50-cent Pick Four has finally made it to NYRA, more specifically, Saratoga. So what's the difference between a 50-cent base bet versus a $1 - a lot. For me, this means I can break more own steadfast rule on Pick 4s - I don't need to single. 50-cents also means you can spread a lot farther in all directions, if you think a longshot or two can crack the sequence. I had a $96 Pick 4 based on a dollar (something I would never play) last Saturday that was knocked down to $48 with just the 50-cent base investment. The return was still a respectable $750 with two double-digit longshots coming in. (Don't ask why I didn't make the play even though I was on track and had the cash.)

So this brings us to this afternoon with a Pick 4 surrounded by two graded, one ungraded stakes races and with a beaten claiming race on the grass. The strategy is to spread around using the 50-cent bet, hoping again, that a couple of double-digit finishes are in the cards.

Without further ado the Late Pick 4:

The Hattie Moseley for three year old fillies going a mile on the grass looks wide open. The two classy fillies on paper are Parting Words and Sassy's Dream (who are both at juicy odds) based upon facing the most stakes company and showing a good account of themselves. A grade two second place finish can certainly translate to a win at $75,000. For the bigger names and shorter prices - Juddmonte Farms sends Starformer stateside and Todd Pletcher has Artisanal breaking from the outside.

The Grade I Diana for fillies and mares going 1 1/ 8 miles on the grass is always a good race and this year's edition looks ultracompetitive, again, good for odds and playing. You should never look the other way when a horse reels off four wins in a row like Unbridled Humor has done to start her career. She steps up her, but why not a win? Aruna and Aviate look to be knocking on the door for a grade one win and both have all the right connections, which comes with lower prices that should include on your ticket. Romacaca has done everything right in her last four wins and her trainer Nick Canani does not ship without reason. At 15-1, she's the one you hope lands on top and gives some real value to the ticket.

A case can be made for all Jim Dandy entrants but I'm narrowing it down to Dominus who you should respect, Scotus who could surprise and Alternation who seems ready to explode on the scene.

The final race comes down to two for me - Free Brave, the favorite, and Saints Alive, a bomb. Got to do yard work, see ya!

The play at 50-cents is 3-5-8-10/1-6-7/2-4-7/2-10 for $48. Good luck with your plays.

Saratoga's Opening Weekend

2011-07-20T13:14:00.001-04:00

After a not-so-brief hiatus, I am back to blog - just a little bit. I'll start by reposting the video I created last year on Saratoga. Hope you enjoy!

I'll be at the Spa for opening weekend and may attempt a mobile blog post. This will be my 17th straight year making the trip from Boston to the August (and now late July) Place to Be.

Preakness 136 Epilogue

2011-05-22T21:20:00.002-04:00

As I sit in my living room - watching Sox-Cubs - on Sunday night, I thought I'd provide some passing thoughts on my first and likely only Preakness experience.

First, hats off to my wife - of now 14 years - for agreeing to go to the Preakness to celebrate our wedding anniversary. C'mon it doesn't get better than that!
Upon being shuttled into Pimlico, I was reminded of coming into Atlanta in 1996 to see the Olympic Track and Field Trials some 15 years ago. In both cases, I was among mostly white patrons/fans being transported through poor, primarily African American neighborhoods to sit for an event before being bused out again. There was no Siro's, Cask N' Flagon (an old Fenway haunt) or any tavern, restaurant or place that 102,000 fans were going to stop and patronize on Saturday night.
Our third floor grandstand seats were excellent. We sat just a hundred yards from the finish line and directly up from where Dialed In, Mucho Macho Man and Animal Kingdom were saddled up for the Preakness. My wife, our cousins and I also occupied seats 8-11 and 9, 10, and 11 also belonged to the three horses mentioned above. I thought with karma like that, some combination of a 9-10-11 finish was in the cards, so I played a $5 trifecta box with those numbers.
I took a beating most of the day, while the Mrs. hit a few modest exactas. I was alive with Animal Kingdom in a Pick 4, threw down $50 on him to win and had him in several other superfecta and trifectas. My best score on the day was mistakenly betting $5 to win on Shackleford.
The A/C was modest inside the grandstand and getting outside was almost impossible, due to over zealous ushers. (Every seat location was color-coded and if you had the wrong code you were quickly sent away.) If you are willing to take a chance and attend yourself, try the outside grandstand seats, as I felt these seats gave the best view, were shaded most of the day and even offered some protection if it were to rain.
It was good to meet some of my blogger friends - Geno from Equispace and Steve from WirePlayers - in person. Just as personable and knowledgeable in the flesh as they are in cyberspace. An interesting and diverse community, we, Thoroughbred bloggers are.
Thanks also to mom for sending some much needed wagering funds our way for an anniversary gift, ensuring that we could wager to our hearts content.
Below are some pictures from the Preakness...

The starting gate during the undercard

Not a cupcake top, but one of the many decorative hats

Here I am trying to find the Bruins game in an unoccupied horseman's box in front of our seats.

Our view of Animal Kingdom saddling up.

Astrology walks by...

Shackleford before he heated up and won...

Animal Kingdom walks by...

Me and the Mrs...

Animal Kingdom getting a much needed bath afterwards.

Shackleford walks off his Preakness win before entering the winner's circle.

Preakness Update

2011-05-21T16:52:00.000-04:00

Betting away at Pimlico -not much success. I am alive in a Pick 4. I need 4,5 or 6 in race 11 and Animal Kingdom to cash.

Preakness Field and Early Pick

2011-05-19T23:00:00.001-04:00

A quickie look at the 136th Preakness field, as I get ready to make my way down to Balitmore...

Astrology - never out of the money in seven lifetime starts; likely on the board finish
Norman Asbjornson - closed to fourth into what now looks like a weak Wood Memorial
King Congie - nice story behind his name; I'll be routing for him, but passing on a wager
Flashpoint - adds to a projected quick pace; probably won't be around for the finish
Shackleford - can control slow paces like in FL and Kentucky Derbies, but won't have such a luxury this time around
Sway Away - has had troubled rank/trips and still qualifies for a non-winners of one allowance
Midnight Interlude - Baffert changes rider to Garcia again, but unlikely first place finish
Dance City - thanks for the quick pace
Mucho Macho Man - Derby traffic and some uncertainty from jock may have cost him a second place finish
Dialed In - just running for chance at big bonus or ready for real rebound?
Animal Kingdom - real deal and gets even better pace scenario to run at
Isn't He Perfect - No.
Concealed Identity - home boy tries for the big score
Mr. Commons - not sure he'll get the distance and far post doesn't help

My early pick is as simple as 8-9-10 or the Derby Boys to come back better than the rest

Preakness Stakes - Stuck in the Middle

2011-05-15T07:42:00.002-04:00

Middle children long ignored and much maligned have a way of seeking and finding attention. While the Preakness Stakes holds none of the initial glory of its Kentucky Derby brother or the lonely wisdom of its long-toothed kin, the Belmont Stakes, it has confirmed greatness, toppled Triple Crown hopes and played host to a circus line of oddities... and that's just in the last 30 years or so.

Man-handled fillies:

Jockey Angel Cordero on his mount, Codex, pushes filly and Derby champ, Genuine Risk, from the two path, floating her out into the middle of the track while turning for home. A bit of daring, rodeo-race riding, it bordered on or was believed by many to be a racing foul - one Pimlico stewards refused to issue. After an objection by Genuine Risk's jockey, Jacinto Vasquez, who also claimed Cordero reached out and hit his filly with the whip, Codex's first place finish stood and his trainer, D. Wayne Lukas stopped reading the hate mail after a while because it all sounded the same.

Just eight years later, another female Derby winner, Winning Colors, encountered a similar fate that started just after the Preakness gates opened. Pat Day aboard, Forty Niner, the Derby runner up, purposely forces Gary Stevens and Winning Colors, breaking just to his outside, into the four-path all the way around the course. The two race shoulder-to-shoulder into the top of the stretch. Day's move backfires as Risen Star moves through the hole along the rail, big enough for an 18-wheeler, and wins going away. Winning Colors fades to third and Forty Niner backs up in the stretch. And from The Reaping What You Sow Department: D. Wayne Lucas falls on the opposite side of the sword as his filly is the victim of rough race riding. Lucas takes solace in watching Forty Niner suffer in the lane.

To His Knees:

Two weeks after finishing a disappointing third in the Derby, Afleet Alex clips heels with long shot Scrappy T turning for home. Atop Afleet Alex, jock Jeremy Rose expects to crash into the Pimlico dirt, but instead rebounds quickly for an easy win at odds-on.

Really:

A drunk spectator runs out onto the track while horses turn for home during a Preakness undercard race, the Maryland Breeder's Cup. The fan allegedly came out to swing and hit 4-5 favorite, Artax and his jockey Jorge Chavez. The man, horses and jocks all miraculously avoided injury and the man was later arrested on a multitude of charges, one of which should have been: Just Plain Stupid.

Barbaro:

Very little explanation here and in what probably was one of the greatest attractors of fans to horse racing, sans winning or even running of a race. Barbaro united many with his injury, which occurred shortly after breaking through the Pimlico gates moments before the start of the Preakness. The weeks that followed and the courageous battle to save Barbaro's life garnered letters, attention and the whole horse racing community to stop and hope that a great horse's life could be saved against all odds.

The Race:

For my money, the best race Triple Crown race I ever saw was the 1989 rendition of the Preakness. In a much ballyhooed preview of that year's Triple Crown series, ABC Sports made a big deal of an East vs. West rivalry between Easy Goer and Sunday Silence. Following Sunday Silence's easy Derby win over Easy Goer, the hype surrounding the Preakness came to a fever pitch as Easy Goer was made the favorite despite his loss two weeks prior. During the running, as the horses approached the far turn, Easy Goer's jockey, Pat Day, squeezed rider Patrick Valenzula aboard Sunday Silence in an early move going for home and in hopes of knocking Sunday Silence off stride. (Later Valenzuela would say, "Pat tried to screw me all the way around the track.") After quickly getting back into stride, Sunday Silence and Easy Goer hooked up for the last quarter of a mile, running stride-for-stride the entire length of the stretch. Day was trapped on the inside and Valenzuela made him pay, beating him by an emphatic head. Dave Johson's call was spot on.

The Lady is Finally a Preakness Champ:

At least she was the first female this century and the second filly to ever win the middle jewel of the Triple Crown. Rachel Alexandra, who quite frankly could have taken the 135th Derby, if she were entered, wins the Preakness in style. In doing so, Calvin Borel, does the unthinkable - gets off the Derby winner, Mine That Bird, to ride Rachel Alexandra. Not sure we'll ever see such a jockey jump again.

Waiting on a Triple Crown:

Since Affirmed, 12 horses have been anointed with the mantle of taking the first two jewels of Triple Crown before falling three weeks later at Belmont Park. Most of those 12 victories were by open lengths and were precursors to what many fans and bettors thought for sure would be the next Triple Crown winner.

And so we wait, knowing this middle child of a race has the power to produce something as equally dramatic as its Derby predecessor, as confirming as Belmont's test of a champion or just another strange oddity come the Third Saturday in May. For once I will be there, hopefully blogging to you a taste of what the Preakness Stakes is all about, up close and personal.

Kentucky Derby 137 Hangover

2011-05-08T06:49:00.004-04:00

Not unlike the build up to your wedding day, planning for and picking just the right Derby horse takes months of preparations. Not unlike hiring just the right entertainment, food and hall for your special day, finding all the right qualities of that one Derby winner takes investments of time and money. If you've done your homework, the payoff for your big days is evident to you and all those around you. If you've maybe come up a little bit short with your choices of partner - either human or equine - the throb of opportunity lost along with any and all funds that went along with those poor choices can leave you feeling tired, empty and achy. Your basic hangover recipe, especially if you've numbed your pain with alcoholic beverages!

Like most years, I again came up short on putting the right combinations of horses together on Derby Day. Unlike my Derby Picks blog, I backed off Soldat when I saw no rain - your basic cold feet. I, instead went with Mucho Macho Man on top of a superfecta wheel that included Brilliant Speed, Nehro, Archarcharch and Dialed In. Still not a winning wager, but a last minute change that was better than watching Soldat back up through the final furlongs. To go along with this superfecta, I bet a trifecta box with just four horses: Mucho Macho Man, Shackelford, Midnight Interlude and Animal Kingdom - that's right a 13, 14, 15 and 16 trifecta box. It was close as I would come.

The real bummer was the one horse I had to choose to complete my Twinspires.com Derby Prep Parlay Pool. With three "uninvested shares" and a $25,000 pool, I choose Mucho Macho Man over Animal Kingdom for my win wager. I did not, as I stated in my blog yesterday, back up Mucho Macho Man by placing a small win wager on Animal Kingdom.

I have reconciled my losing wagers because I made some important decisions that were right, at least in my thinking, if not in my wagering. Take a scroll down and you'll note that none of my tosses ended up in the top four places. As usual, I wasn't able to put all the pieces together to strike it rich! Check down and and look over the proposed superfecta wheel that included three out of the top four finishers - I would have left Mucho Macho Man out of third and just missed a $24,000 payoff! That would have really hurt. And just as your way too drunk uncle at your wedding didn't realized the bar was closed, I had no idea there were no dime superfectas on Derby Day.

Unlike your wedding day, that is if you're lucky enough in life to have chosen wisely or been chosen, you don't have to go through the indignation of feeling the hungover losses of Kentucky Derby Day alone. If, well, you haven't been or don't wish to go through the preparations for a marriage with a special someone, maybe you are reaping such benefits and hit it big yesterday. At the end of each Derby loss, which there have been more than I like to admit, I get to smile and nod toward my beautiful wife, who understands my Derby dreams or at least tolerates them, and I feel very lucky. For real!

So if you head hurts from the unrequited love of a Derby choice that came up empty, there's always another race today, the Preakness two weeks from now or a well deserved rest. Whatever your future wager will be take the time to prepare and choose wisely and just maybe, such planning will reap monetary benefits. In the case that you're real patient and want to start planning for next year's Derby, good luck! But don't worry your hangover shouldn't last more than a few more hours - mine is already fading...

Kentucky Derby 137 Pick and Plays - Final Channeling

2011-05-07T10:42:00.001-04:00

The ramp up to the Kentucky Derby includes three months of watching, reading and ranking the prospects. There was honest and blind belief in a few horses that I thought were special, but ended up much less than that. Both To Honor and Serve and Casper's Touch were young, talented colts I thought would be standing in the Churchill starting gate tomorrow. Alas, I was dreadfully wrong.

Besides keeping tabs on equine athletes and human connections, I've laid my share of wagers down - some good, some bad and some just plain ugly. One of my best bets was a win wager on Midnight Interlude in the Santa Anita Derby; one of the worst, a win wager on Uncle Mo in the Wood at 1-9. I know, I know foolish, but I was simply trying to build more "shares" in a Twinspires.com contest at the time. Believe me it was the only time I've ever bet on such a heavy favorite.

Now that the gate is set, I've eaten a healthy slice of Pecan Derby Pie and I've looked of the Daily Racing Form one more time, I'm ready to come up with a few Kentucky Derby picks. The potential bets will follow with a brief explanation for each: two Superfectas, which if you'd like can serve as a basis for trifecta and/or exacta bets and a win wager. The Pick 3 looks too tough as I can't narrow the Turf Classic to under six selections.

I'll start with the most difficult bet first, the superfecta - that is trying to correctly predict the first four finishers in a 19-horse field. It sounds hard, is hard, but has the potential top pay $250,000! You can also play the superfecta for a base bet of a dime, so you can keep the bet affordable.

After factoring all the horses I liked into a $400 superfecta wheel and left feeling exposed to more than a few entries that could break up my bet, I'll take an inexpensive shot at the big ticket. I'm figuring it this way - I'd rather be wrong for a few bucks than wrong for a lot of bucks. Or maybe I'll get lucky.

Since rain is more than likely before and around post time, I'm taking an experienced sloppy track winner to wheel on top of the superfecta ticket - 17 Soldat. Sure his Florida Derby was awful, but they forced him to run out of his comfort zone, by taking him under a hold along the rail. Sure a coast-to-coast score is unlikely, but maybe if he runs to his front-running strength and goes three-wide just off the pace, he may pounce on front runners and win going away before the closers close. It's worth a shot.

Underneath, I'll go with four closers:

1 Archarcharch - the post is a problem only if you think he'll win; I don't because I'm putting him underneath. It looks like he comes out of a key race and he's got the talent and bloodlines to contend.
2 Brilliant Speed - following his strong work and showing on Churchill track, I'm willing to give him a shot at a price
8 Dialed In - proven dead closer for Nick Zito probably means another runner up finish, maybe
16 Animal Kingdom - finding position to close into will be a key element to his success, but I am betting on him improving enough to hit the board.

So the $1 Superfecta will be 17/1-2-8-16/1-2-8-16/1-2-8-16 for $24.

Since I did the grunt work handicapping for a more madcap scramble let me give you a 10-cent Superfecta: 8,13,16,17/1,8,13,16,17,19/1,2,3,14,15,19/2,3,12,14,15 would cost $40

Since I'm proposing to single Soldat on top of the Superfecta, you'd think I'd just play him to win as well and I will. But I'll also be adding Mucho Macho Man and probably Animal Kingdom for two, small additional win wagers. Interestingly, I have three "uninvested shares" in $25,000 Derby Prep Contest at Twinspires.com. To get my shares vested and a chance to share in the $25,000 pool, I will have to cash a single $10 win wager. So I'll be using one of the three horses mentioned above to hopefully get more than $50 back.

Good luck with all your Derby Day wagers!

Channeling the Derby Part II - The Contenders

2011-05-04T20:24:00.004-04:00

Followers of this blog - the few, the proud (thanks for continuing to come back) - know it's time for the second installment of Channeling the Derby. This list is created in juxtaposition to Part I - The Tosses. Please see two post below to see who I don't like. The point here is to present up to a dozen contenders and a few betting strategies on the Derby. A few colts will be reconsidered due to training (lack thereof), post positions and possible weather conditions. By the way it's been wet for most of the last 10 days in Louisville and several more days, including Derby Day, have wet weather in the forecast. In addition you may peruse the final Derby Dozen to see how 12 bloggers figure the best 12 horses entering the Derby Gate.

In no particular order, the Contenders:

Shackleford - interesting since he doesn't appear to need the lead, and likes horses running next to him. He's drawn nicely outside Pants on Fire and Comma to the Top and could be running in a sweet spot three wide into the first turn. Long shot possibility.

Archarcharch - I wouldn't put too much into the number one draw since he races from far off the pace. Blew out three furlongs, old school style, on Tuesday just four days before the big dance. Win considerations at the moment.

Midnight Interlude - I've run hot and cold with him since his big upset win in the Santa Anita Derby. Bob Baffert's comments about his trainee were cool at best earlier this week and he had similar comments before the Arkansas Derby about The Factor. Right now considering third or fourth place on deep exotic tickets.

Dialed In - the most impressive of a less than impressive field. In looking at past races he seems to relish running through fields, so 20 horses may be the least of his problems. Excellent draw breaking just outside front runners, so he'll have room to his left when the Derby gates open. Win considerations.

Animal Kingdom - one of four of reconsidered and he gets on the ticket due to pure talent and distance breeding. His solid Churchill work points to him handling the dirt and with a field filled with distance limitations he gets a long look on top of exotic bets.

Soldat - a wet, meaning less than good, track moves him way up and it looks like he may get a soggy strip to run on. If the track is good, tiring, I will remove his chances for the win. Poor draw at post number 17.

Brilliant Speed - admittedly I'm having a very hard time figuring him. He is another seeming to improve in his workouts at Churchill and has strong stamina on both sire and dam sides. Poor dirt form and poor post - #2 - probably makes him a non-factor.

Nehro - for better or worse he's an underneath horse for me. Maybe he's a super horse or maybe he just likes to finish behind the winner as he has done the past two out. Coming from the 19-hole hampers his chances and I'll only play him for third or fourth.

Mucho Macho Man - honest, yes; consistent, yes; good enough to win, maybe. His post position is a plus and I'm finding it hard to keep him off my tickets.

Stay Thirsty - the better worker training along with Uncle Mo in the Churchill slop; third or fourth at best.

Twice the Appeal - bet with your head, not with your heart. I've reconsidered him and he'll be off my Derby bets, sorry Calvin.

Santiva -not enough done at three to sway me away from others; two-year-old Churchill success not withstanding, he's a dead bet

Derby Kitten - out

Betting strategies:

The past few years I've tried a superfecta wheel - that is picking a winner and wheeling four other horses underneath in spots 2-4. So the bet looks like this A over B, C, D, E/B, C, D, E/B, C, D, E. The bet is inexpensive at $24 for a $1 and requires a good single on top. For instance, last Derby I had Super Saver on top of four others while only correctly pegging Ice Box in the second through fourth spots. I had Paddy Prado in the exacta along with Make Music for Me. I just failed to put it all together. With this field I am not sure I can go with a single on top. I'm looking at a superfecta of three on top for the win with four others underneath.

Another bet I am considering - a Pick Three. I'm thinking of a 3x3x8 play, ending with the Derby. This is a $48 play for a $1, and my thinking is this Derby is so wide open that I should play at least 8 for the win. Sounds a bit crazy, but if I can narrow the two races before to three choices each, having 8 covered would give me a high percentage of hitting - at least on paper - if I'm alive to the Derby.

Next blog - Channeling the Derby - The Bets

Unclaimed Kentucky Derby Dream

2011-05-01T08:10:00.001-04:00

Thoroughbred horse fans, whether brought into the game later in life by a friend or born into the sport through a family member, all have an ultimate destination – the Kentucky Derby. For those among us that bet on the same Thoroughbreds, having the Derby winner is a matter of great pride and confirmation of handicapping skill. To sit under Churchill’s twin spires holding the winning ticket, well, the player and fan has made it to horse nirvana.

In the spring of 1996, I held both a winning bet and Churchill clubhouse tickets for Derby day and both went unclaimed. Here’s why.

During the spring, fall, summer and winter of my family’s discomfort – 1995 - the year my girlfriend, now wife, and father both were diagnosed with aggressive forms of cancer, I was hoping, praying to simply have a family intact. Of course most of those days were filled with different forms of medicine, doctor’s opinions and just plain waiting around.

My father had been lying flat since a surgery in early October, just two short months after he started vomiting blood. His surgery originally slated to remove stomach cancer, ended up being terminal pancreatic cancer. When he didn’t awake 10 days after his surgery, doctors went back in to remove all of his pancreas and quite a bit of whatever else was close by. These were the events that lead up to my daily search for signs of life beyond the rhythmic bounce of a breathing machine or maybe just a peaceful death.

Meanwhile, starting in May, my wife received chemotherapy strong enough to kill her immune system and the cancer that grew along with it. She received a stem cell transplant (her own clean bone marrow) on the very day my father went into surgery…the first time. She alternated between restless sleep and bouncing off the walls that kept her safe from airborne infection for the next 28 days.

And I got to know the cleaning ladies, nurses and doctors at two city hospitals.

I also dreamt of taking my wife to the beach, going to Red Sox spring training with my dad and maybe, just maybe together we could be part of the roar of the 150,000 strong that erupts just as the Churchill Downs’ starting gate springs open for the Derby. A big dream for the son of a school teacher, who spent summer days on the hot top at Suffolk Downs and the quite greener Rockingham Park reading the Racing Form along with his dad.

I made it to the beach with wife. It’s the place I would later propose to her about 18 months after her stem cell procedure. I even made it to Fort Meyers, Florida, the Red Sox winter home, with my dad and sister just two months after he miraculously woke up from a nine-week coma. Shortly thereafter, I figured what the heck, why not try to make that Derby dream come true.

So I wrote a letter to Churchill Downs explaining my dad’s illness, our love of horse racing and my desire to get him to Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. Surprisingly, someone replied with two tickets for the Kentucky Derby dated for Saturday, May 4, 1996.

My father died just two days prior, on a beautiful, cloudless May day. I gave the tickets away to my dad’s friend, who never made the trip.

In the meantime, while we prepared to wake my father, I took some time to read the Form and then snuck away to Suffolk Downs to make my Derby bet. I figured since I had to pick the funeral home, casket, church readings, etc., why not try to pick the Derby winner, something I had hoped to be doing alongside my father in Lousiville.

Just as I’ll be doing this week, I narrowed the large field down to just a handful of contenders. I placed $2 to win on my three top choices. One of the three, Grindstone, nailed Cavonnier at the finish line to win by the slimmest of margins – the length of his nostril. The win paid about $14, but I never cashed the ticket.

Instead I brought the winning ticket to my father’s wake the following day and tucked into his jacket pocket. He went out a winner. And my dream ended in a much different way.

Channeling The Derby Part I - The Tosses

2011-04-28T06:25:00.001-04:00

Channeling - to direct toward or into some particular course...in this case the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

The build up to the first Saturday in May comes with so much hype and hyperbole eliminating the static in search of the Derby winner goes far beyond handicapping. To land on the right horse when almost all of America is a horse racing fan takes more than skill, guile and speed figures. It takes karma, chi, balance, harmony and peace in a less than peaceable world. I believe to pluck a Derby winner from a full field with humongous betting pools, I have to work as conduit and channel my strength, energy and ignorance towards a single-minded goal.

I also know that any and all analysis will need adjustment based upon post, rider changes and weather. Better to be prepared when conditions require last minute changes, than to be caught flat-footed.

In the first step toward picking a winner and winning combinations (I did have the Derby winner and exacta last year), I have to toss horses that I feel have no chance of hitting the board regardless of where they stand in the gate or whatever their odds may be. I'm feeling pretty confident in at least eight horses that won't break up my Derby tickets and am on the fence for a few more. Without further ado and in no particular order:

Comma to the Top - like his grit and guile, not so much his sprint pedigree on top and bottom; connections were right to question Derby distance
Watch Me Go - the company he's kept resembles those awaiting last call on a week night; Brethren has proven to be less than expected and the Illinois Derby field he lost to was very weak
Master of Hounds - comes half away across the world off one Derby prep loss; anything less than 50-1 is an overlay
Decisive Moment - no wins this year; the only reason he's the mix is a second-place finish in the $1 million Delta Jackpot in December
Twinspired - nosed out of victory in one of weakest Blue Grass Stakes in recent memory; one poor dirt race on tab
Brilliant Speed - see Twinspired
Pants of Fire - there are just too many horses wanting the lead in the Derby and of all them, I like this one the least
Uncle Mo - GI infection aside just don't feel he's the same horse he was a two; yet to fire a higher Beyer speed figure at three than he did at two; risky wager

On the fence, awaiting works, equipment changes and post position draw:

Animal Kingdom - impressive winner of weak Spiral Stakes, but not really sure he'll relish Churchill dirt
Stay Thirsty - the blinkers on experiment went awry in Florida Derby and not sure taking the shades off improves matters
Santiva - the only reason he may get onto tickets underneath is his early Churchill success
Twice the Appeal - like most of American I will probably use this horse in some wagers since Borel picked up the mount

With less horses to consider, I'll set my sights on nine to eleven for various wagers.

Next blog - Channeling the Derby Part II - The Contenders

Kentucky Derby Field 137 - Just About Set

2011-04-26T21:46:00.003-04:00

A week and half away and here is the likely field for Kentucky Derby 137 in order ranked by earnings:

1. Uncle Mo - on the workout comeback trail - sort of like Muhammad Ali calling a sparring match a comeback
2. Dialed In - more secluded than the Royal Family
3. Archarcharch - we are family - father-in-law/son-in-law trainer/jockey team, nice story=lower than necessary odds
4. Comma to the Top - you'll likely shout in exclamation at the top of the stretch, if you bet him
5. Toby's Corner - Wood winner will hopefully avoid dreaded "wise guy" tag
6. Pants on Fire - can't decide if he's pretender or contender
7. Midnight Interlude - not being able to pass stablemate in Churchill workout doesn't bode well
8. Soldat - connections practicing rain dance
9. Brilliant Speed - no synthetic to real dirt Derby winner yet
10. Master of Hounds - gets the centerpiece for having traveled the longest distance
11. Twice Appeal - I watched Mine That Bird, have the feeling he's no Mine That Bird
12. Nehro - possible chalk, really, I'm not kidding
13. Mucho Macho Man - two, old school seven furlong workouts back-to-back - I like it!
14. Decisive Moment - I'm begging you to leave him off your ticket
15. Animal Kingdom - may be final defection and/or turf monster in waiting
16. Stay Thirsty - gets Dominguez to ride...yawn...
17. Santiva - traffic troubles in field of 12, add eight more to the mix and he'll be in the breakdown lane
18. Watch Me Go - remember he beat a former $16K claimer in Tampa Bay Derby and not by much
19. Shackelford- tough as nails in Florida Derby defeat, does he have another furlong in him?
20. Twinspired - last horse in just adds to intrigue or one to cross off your the list

Next blog will be Channeling the Derby Part I - Horses You Should Toss

13 Ways to Blow Your Kentucky Derby Bet

2011-04-24T09:32:00.000-04:00

With just 13 days until the Kentucky Derby and in the spirit of American poet, Wallace Stevens, allow me to expound on the 13 ways that you can and most likely will ruin your Kentucky Derby bet(s):

Too many experts listened to...trust a couple, toss the rest. Most of the frenzy in the days leading up to the Derby is just white noise. Take my man, The Turk's advice and create your own odds and top choices sans The Daily Racing Form and morning line.
Keep morning works in perspective...in other words listen to Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch with his daily reports. The man is spot on and is one of the two that informs my Derby bet.
Betting too much...sure adding one more horse to your superfectat key (1x5x6x10), may increase your odds of hitting incrementally, but it's going to end up costing a pretty penny and with this field the return on your investment is unlikely.
Betting too little...sure it condradicts number 3, but you should pick a dollar amount you're comfortable betting (losing) and then just going with it. Whether that is $50 or $500, choose the amount and try not to deveate.
Complicating your bets with too many combinations and betting against yourself...if you're wheeling Dialed In on top for a trifecta, don't take your gambling money and bet against Dialed In for "saver" bets in case he doesn't win. Go with your gut and cross your fingers for a safe and clear Derby trip.
Following a screening process to arrive at a winner...many "experts" have come up with criteria for thier Derby choices, which usually includes 10 to 20 factors to be checked off. The horses with the most or least checks (depending on the system) gets the nod for their wagers. Too much has already occured with this cohort of horses to follow any such rules. Pick your winner based on past performances, human connections, breeding, whatever you decide, but please put the screening on the shelf for Derby 137.
Wait until the last minute to make your wagers...procrasination in betting almost always causes harm - suddenly you end up tossing in a few more numbers as you wait in the betting window line or as you tap away at your computer. Come up with some bets the night before and make a few necessary adjustments in the hours leading up to the Derby. I suggest you make all wagers after the post parade, if you feel obligated to wait.
Not tossing horses a few days before the Derby...look, just as there will be a few horses you really like, there's got to be a few you dislike enough to remove from consideration. Do yourself the favor and cross these horses off your list of bets and don't look back.
Including "wiseguy" horses in your bets...the second you hear anyone mention a horse as a "wiseguy" horse make it one of your tosses. Please, I'm begging you.
Attend the Derby or a Derby party...listen being at Churchill is great for the few that go every year and attending a party with friends may be fun, but both will mess with your bets. If you're doing either make your bets early, like at noon, and then sit back and enjoy.
Drinking while wagering...listen maybe "a" beer helps clarify your thinking, but any more than 2 will add to your confusion.
Go against a hunch...especially this year and with this field. Play the birthdays, numbers from dreams (I just had one recently), a horse that has the same name as your dog or favorite poem, anything, I say go with it!
Don't bet...obvious I know, but the year Street Sense won, I came up with an inexpensive $24 Pick 4 ending with Street Sense as the single. It was a 2x3x4x1 play and thought it unlikely to hit, so I sat on it. That little wager would have returned more than $2,000 if my memory serves me well.

Kentucky Derby 137 - The Perfect Storm

2011-04-21T10:17:00.002-04:00

On the eve of Halloween 1991, the New England coast was hit with a confluence of several different weather conditions that combined for what was later termed, "A Perfect Storm." For those of us here in New England, experiencing it at the time, it was the, "No Name Storm" that presented hurricane-like tides, waves and winds that were responsible for taking the lives of six fisherman out of Gloucester. The tragic tale spurned a book and then a movie.

While the Kentucky Derby will not carry the same dire ramifications as that 20-year-old storm, it certainly appears that a series of events have been put in motion for a similar unexpected result. Might this be the year a 100-1 shot takes the Run for the Roses? Why the heck not.

So far we have encounted the routine injuries and decfections with still more to come. But additionally there have been:

five straight Derby prep races taken by double-digit longshots
a hugely disappointing loss by the overwhelming pre-Derby favorite, Uncle Mo
a recent maiden-winner, Midnight Interlude, taking the Santa Anita Derby
a lack of speed throughout this Derby crop producing just one, 100+ Beyer routing (by The Factor who may not even make the Derby gate)
a season of unsuccessful two-Derby preps
equipment changes galore and some expected rider changes upcoming (Calvin Borel is not going into the Derby without a mount)
a couple of Derby entrants bred for turf that are capable of 10 furlongs and a slew of dirt horses with breeding suggesting 8 furlongs would be a max

It wouldn't surpise me if the Derby Trial run the week before the Derby produces a last minute entrant. So how do you pick a winner with all these variables in play? First, any screening rule you've followed in the past needs to go out the window. This prospective field is filled with rule-breakers, so why bother with such nonsense. Second, keep it simple - bet an exacta of All over Dialed In or the other way around, if it rains take Soldat to wire the field or just bet whoever Calvin Borel ends up on. More difficult than predicting the weather, the lead up to Kentucky Derby 137 promises many shifting winds, and I'm not sure if keeping up with each new development will help or hurt with your forecast...

Kentucky Derby Field 137

2011-04-16T21:38:00.001-04:00

Before injuries, defections and cooler heads, Kentucky Derby 137 field based on the top 20 graded stakes earners is something like this:

1. Uncle Mo (2 year-old champ, Wood flop)
2. Dialed In (two-time stakes winner at Gulfstream)
3. Archarcharch (upset Arkansas Derby winner with Arkansas connections)
4. Comma to the Top (connections mulling Derby start after runner up SA Derby finish)
5. Toby's Corner (giant killer and Wood winner)
6. Pants on Fire (coast-to-coast Louisiana Derby winner, brings female jock along for the ride)
7. Midnight Interlude (from maiden to Santa Anita Derby winner...wow!)
8. J P's Gusto (yet to return to two-year-old form)
9. Soldat (FL Derby ugly, but Fountain of Youth winner's stock may rise after The Factor's slide)
10. Brilliant Speed (Blue Grass Stakes annual double-digit bomb)
11. Master of Hounds (Dubai to Derby Trail littered with talented, but tired entrants)
12. Twice Appeal (Sunland Derby winner beat Astrology, so what?)
13. Nehro (fast maturing and fast closing colt that looks like he'll want more distance...maybe)
14. Mucho Macho Man (steady and this year that counts for a lot)
15. Decisive Moment (Delta Jackpot continues to pay four months later for this runner up)
16. Animal Kingdom (fake stuff, turf or all natural dirt, not sure what he prefers, but 10 furlongs OK)
17. Astrology (two-year-old form, now a year-old)
18. The Factor (injury or excuse for latest Derby Trail favorite to fall)
19. Stay Thirsty (blinkers on, blinkers off, blinkers on, blinkers off.....)
20. Jaycito (Lexington won't matter if he wins it and probably won't even if he doesn't)

Just waiting for a change of heart...

21. Santiva (didn't like traffic and rail in Blue Grass)
22. Watch Me Go (this year's Mine That Bird???)
23. Shackelford (front runner that held well for FL Derby runner up finish)
24. Twinspired (at least he's got the right name, just a nose better he's trading places with Brilliant Speed)
25. Silver Medallion (won months ago and trained up to distant SA Derby finish)

One Factor to Fear in Arkansas Derby

2011-04-16T12:43:00.001-04:00

Sure, The Factor is a solid 7-5 favorite in today's crowded Arkansas Derby field. The number one question you should consider before wagering on the centerpiece of the Oaklawn Park meet, can anyone go with The Factor on the front end? At least long enough and fast enough to soften Bob Baffert's speedy colt and set the table for an upset? My answer is a resounding, "Yes."

While there are a few likely to go with The Factor there is probably just one horse with the potential to hang with favorite at least through the three-quarter mile mark - Brethren. I don't think this Todd Pletcher trainee will win today's feature, just apply enough pressure for someone else to rise up and take over midway through the stretch.

Here are the factors in Brethren's favor:

Akin to last year's Kentucky Derby winner and Arkansas Derby runner-up, Super Saver
Blinkers on with two fast works on his tab - there is little doubt of Pletcher's intentions of at least attempting go on with The Factor
Pletcher possibly testing the waters to see if Brethren may be able to take down The Factor come May 7, so his main threat, Uncle Mo may get help in tracking down the likely Churchill pacesetter (Could Stay Thirsty's blinker experiment gone bad, been the first attempt?)
Brethren has the advantage of breaking just outside The Factor and his jockey Ramon Dominguez will have the option of attacking from the bell or tracking just off The Factor's flank

I believe Brethren's pressure will set up one of the many closers/blinkers on crowd for the win. In this Derby Trail of Doubt, why not take the long shot J W Blue?

Penultimate Derby Dozen

2011-04-13T22:15:00.001-04:00

Just a fancy way of saying the "Next to Last" Derby Dozen is upon us. And just like in the movie Major League, featuring catcher turned commenter Bob Uekcer calling a pitch "just a bit outside" as it sails six feet out of the strike zone, the Road to the Kentucky Derby has become just a little wild and wooly. Who's the top choice, after Uncle Mo disappointed at 1-9, you ask? Depends on who's giving the answer. For those of us compiling the Derby Dozen every three weeks, you'll see seven different horses receiving first place votes!

What I don't understand are those still believing in Uncle Mo. Listen no offense, but the horse wanted nothing to do with the final furlong and was overtaken by two far less accomplished colts. There is no question the son of Indian Charlie is too light on training and Todd Pletcher simply doesn't have enough to time to change the plan to get the horse "race ready" for the Derby. The whole two-prep plan is totally overrated and leaves absolutely no room for error. Carl Nafzger, a class act and trainer, created a plan that paved the way for the first and only, Breeder's Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby winner in Street Sense. But that plan was for one horse, not a roadmap for all to follow.

The Factor has raced five times since December, which equals Uncle Mo's lifetime starts over his nine-month career. Unlike Pletcher, Bob Baffert has worked The Factor hard and will have sent him to and from Arkansas twice before the Derby. Even without a win in Arkansas, I feel he is far more accomplished than his East Coast counterpart - road tested, brought along through actually running a string of races grouped together and showing the talent and heart of a champion. If you're not questioning Uncle Mo's heart and fitness right now, your either blind or far too naive.

As far as any dark horses at this point - just about any two out of 25 horses running in the Arkansas Derby and Toyota Blue Grass Stakes - pick one, any one. For me, I like Caleb's Posse to give a good showing in the Arkansas Derby. He was the only horse running at The Factor in the Rebel and the stretch out in distance plus the potential for some pace pressure for The Factor give's this son of Posse a strong chance despite possible distance limitations. Heck, he'll be making his 10th start to boot!

Likely Derby Field - Four Weeks Out

2011-04-10T20:15:00.002-04:00

Yesterday's final furlongs of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby certainly muddled the Kentucky Derby picture while befuddling fans and gamblers in equal measure.

Uncle Mo did what many, seasoned Thoroughbred followers thought he just might do - quit in the final eighth of mile on his way to a humbling defeat in his final Kentucky Derby prep. Sired by the fast developing, yet classically distance-challenged Indian Charlie, Uncle Mo likely showed distance limitations through his much-ballyhooed, weak two-Derby prep schedule. Which leaves a clamouring public praying for a Triple Crown champ, wondering just who turn to their lonely eyes to.

Midnight Interlude simply continued the winning ways of Bob Baffert, giving him another Derby hopeful. Did I mention Midnight Interlude's SA Derby prep was a maiden victory! C'mon Man!

Where this leaves us less than four weeks until the Run for the Roses is a likely field of 20 with really no stand-out in the crowd. Unless The Factor dominates the Arkansas Derby, there will be mass confusion among bettors come Derby Day. With anything less than a daylight win next week by The Factor, you're looking at lots of value in the full field - a couple favorites hovering around 5-1. How about a quick look at the probable Derby starters as they stand today? (These are the leading stakes earners to date with a few projections based on remaining stake earnings out there. For kicks and giggles I tossed in some projected morning line odds.)

Uncle Mo - leading money winner surrounded by clouds of doubt; not sure workouts will tell us anything, we don't already know - projected morning line: 9-2
Dialed In - to date only two-stake winner in his three-year-old season; light on seasoning and slow closing Florida Derby gives pause - projected morning line: 4-1
Pants on Fire - late arrival via Louisiana Derby, not a winning trail of late - projected morning line: 12-1
Midnight Interlude - surprise Santa Anita Derby winner has more than one hundred years of history to overcome with no wins as a two-year-old - projected morning line: 20-1
Toby's Corner - giant killer or just inherited Wood Memorial in shambles turning for home; at least he came home faster than Dialed In - projected morning line: 5-1
J P's Gusto - has failed to live up to expectations, but has enough graded stakes for a Derby start, so you'll likely see him in the gate - projected morning line: 20-1
Soldat - strong Fountain of Youth followed by weak Florida Derby; will have to go back to pace setting - projected morning line: 15-1
Twice Appeal - unlikely Derby winner, so why not toss two bucks on his nose - projected morning line: 40-1
Mucho Macho Man - his stock continues to rise in my view; if he keeps his shoes on he makes some noise on Derby Day - projected morning line: 10-1
Decisive Moment - it would take a perfect storm of events for him to hit the board on May 7 - projected morning line: 50-1
Animal Kingdom - certainly looked good beating much less, but did it in style after being shuffled back early in Spiral Stakes - projected morning line: 10-1
Astrology - chief qualifier is stake's money earned as a two-year-old, but hasn't lived up to potential this year; overrated - projected morning line: 20-1
The Factor - fast early and late during paceless Rebel Stakes; if he wins the Arkansas Derby, he's the chalk - projected morning line: 3-1
Stay Thirsty - another Todd Pletcher trainee - blinkers on and now off for Derby, but it won't make a difference - projected morning line: 30-1
Jaycito - if he makes it, not likely to factor as much as other Bob Baffert trainees - projected morning line: 20-1
Santiva - likely gets into Derby gate with decent Blue Grass Stakes; not sure what to make of him - projected morning line: 12-1
Watch Me Go - failed to follow Tampa success in Second-City - projected morning line: 50-1
Shackleford - playing the waiting game; not likely to get in Derby gate
Nehro - another light on seasoning, but gets one more chance following solid second in LA Derby to make the gate - projected morning line: 30-1
Caleb's Posse - only horse to make up ground on The Factor and extra 1/16 miles may give him opportunity to get by Arkansas chalk - projected morning line: 30-1
Elite Alex and Sway Away - both need either a first or second place finish in next start to Run for the Roses - projected morning line: 40-1

Just one man's humble opinion. Of course, much can and probably will change in the next 26 days.

Kentucky Derby Preps Provide Coast to Coast Confusion

2011-04-09T22:49:00.000-04:00

So you watched, wagered and likely lost bets on the Santa Anita Derby and Wood Memorial Stakes. Now what? Before I try to make sense of what's left of the likely field for Kentucky Derby 137, allow me to briefly recap the two big surprises today.

Uncle Mo's Wood loss was a head scratcher - taking the lead under a hold through moderate fractions only to spit the bit and give it up in the stretch. It was as ugly a 1-9 performance as you'll ever see. According to trainer Todd Pletcher, his main Derby threat stepped on himself leaving the gate, but did not offer the minor mishap as an excuse for the loss. Distance concerns and questions will hound Uncle Mo's connections over the next four weeks. Good luck with that.

On the Left Coast, Bob Baffert continued his magical ride through the Santa Anita meet with a maiden, yes a maiden under his care, Midnight Interlude, winning this year's Santa Anita Derby. Imagine losing the post time favorite just the day before with the scratch of Jaycito and then coming back with Midnight Interlude, just a few weeks away from his first win, taking it all by just a nose. Despite such a steep leap in competition Baffert's charge was well below his morning line of 25-1, a sign that the betting public was either unsure of the rest of the field or was happy to find the meet's leading trainer with a horse to saddle up and bet on. (I had $10 on his nose because I couldn't find another horse to back.)

I can't help feeling Baffert's map to Churchill is watermarked with the word Destiny. He's going with at least two, maybe three, colts and it says here that somehow, someway he wins a fourth Derby trophy.

Five Reasons Uncle Mo Wins the Kentucky Derby

2011-04-08T22:02:00.003-04:00

In true contrarian style allow me to argue against my blog from two weeks ago and provide five reasons Uncle Mo is a lock to win the Kentucky Derby:

From the Imitation is the Sincerest Form of Flattery Department - only one horse has turned the Breeder's Cup/Kentucky Derby double. Street Sense won the the Juvenile in smashing fashion at Churchill Downs and followed it up with a two-race prep on his way to earning a blanket of roses. Uncle Mo's trainer, Todd Pletcher, has seen the plan and is following it to a T.
While Todd Pletcher doesn't win every Grade I east of the Mississippi anymore (outside Breeder's Cup Days), he did win the Derby last year. Success tends to bred success - just ask Bob Baffert and Wayne Lucas.
Uncle Mo still hasn't reached his ceiling as a three-year-old. As a two-year-old he was untouchable, and he has yet to be tested this year. His competition - if that's what we want to call it - in the Wood Memorial are all running for the second place share of $200,000, and a chance to make the Derby gate.
With his ability to rate and tactical speed, even the inner or outer most posts shouldn't be a problem on Kentucky Derby Day. Jockey Johnny V. should be able to use Uncle Mo's push button speed to stay out of trouble early and have plenty left over for the stretch drive late.
His sire, Indian Charlie, fell as the Derby favorite 13 years ago, but his dam's sire, Arch, won the Super Derby when it was run at 10 furlongs in that same year. And in case you didn't know, Arch sired this year's Breeder's Cup Classic winner Blame. So the classic 1 1/4 miles distance is in the genes.

I didn't even mention the weakening competition either falling off or failing to finish lately. Sure The Factor may start with the lead on the First Saturday in May, but he is unlikely to finish with it. The other leading contender, Dialed In was all out to beat a tiring pacesetter, Shackleford, that wouldn't be confused with the finest colts of this quickly diminishing class. So obviously, Uncle Mo should be everyone's Derby horse. That doesn't mean I'll be betting him...

Florida Derby - That's Why They Call It Horse Racing

2011-04-03T19:59:00.001-04:00

In today's Florida Derby only two horses ran to their strengths and styles. Not surprisingly Shackleford (pace setter) and Dialed In (flying from the back of the pack) finished one, two. The rest of the field were relegated to roles that were either unfamiliar, uncomfortable or both.

Starting from the last to third place...

Bowman's Causeway was simply overmatched. If he can get his head back maybe he'll make some noise at Monmouth or Saratoga this summer.
Stay Thirsty was given blinkers off a win and finished miles behind due to the equipment change and tougher competition. Derby dreams dashed???
Arch Traveler was never close enough to contend traveling further back they usual.
Soldat was given the task from running off the pace and with enough graded earnings to make the Derby gate his human connections were given such a luxury.
Flashpoint either purposely screwed everything up (asked to take back by his trainer) or his right hand veer when the starting gate opened was too much to overcome. Either way he never ran to his pace-setting or pressing style.
To Honor and Serve was reserved by Garret Gomez and basically quit because he wasn't allowed to go after Shackleford earlier.

Will lessons be learned and Derby plans altered due to the less than desirable outcomes from the six mentioned above? Most likely. I hope that Shackleford makes the Kentucky Derby gate because following the winner, he's the only horse to have earned anything today. Unfortunately he'll need either defections, injuries or cooler heads from those horses in front of him on the Derby earnings' list.

Florida Derby - To Duel is to Die

2011-04-02T13:08:00.002-04:00

In the Florida Derby all the human connections know that a prolonged, speed duel among two or more horses will mean something less than a victory for those running fastest first on the front-end. Yet, this is the widespread predictition of the racing community - those watching, wagering or trying to win $1 million race.

So if you, me and the lamppost all know that if the first three, quarter-mile fractional times look like :23, :47, 1:10 it will likely doom two or more horses vying for the lead, why would any jockey or trainer prescribe to such a suicide mission?

The first and foremost answers is: You can't change the stripes on a tiger or a horse that is fast and likes the front is very likely to quit on his jockey if he is restrained from running out of his horseshoes. So horses like The Factor and Flashpoint do what comes natural - run fast and either run their competition into quitting or have the ability to re-brake during a tiring stretch run to hold on.

While it appears Flashpoint will be let loose from the time the gates open and Soldat has trained to rate behind Flashpoint, sometimes horses have other ideas on where they'd like to run. As you may remember Flashpoint didn't take to the front last time out in winning the Hutchenson Stakes and Soldat has won from just off the pace running on the turf, so who knows, maybe Flashpoint rates off Soldat.

As I wrote in my Thorofan Handicapping Corner analysis on the Florida Derby, Stay Thirsty is the horse most likely to determine the outcome. Not to overstate, but Flashpoint is likely to be done after seven furlongs and Soldat may or may not rate as trained. Stay Thirsty is coming into the Florida Derby off an usual training move, adding blinkers after a win. (So unusual that his Trainer Todd Pletcher had to get permission from Gulfstream officials to add them.) Blinkers are added, in most instances, to keep a horse focused or to get him "into the race" earlier, following a loss. If Stay Thirsty does contest the early pace with his new shades, then a speed duel is likely and Dialed In may be picking up the pieces late.

For some reason, I doubt a duel and feel either two-time stakes winner, To Honor and Serve or Soldat benefit the most from a slower than expected pace and/or a pacesetter that is likely to quit in Flashpoint. I'm betting with this in mind and will either cash in or be wrong...and that is the beauty of horse racing - laying your opinions down. In this case, for whoever wants to read them.

Chaos Theory

2011-03-31T21:54:00.001-04:00

Think about it. Your job, your passion as handicapper, bettor, gambler - whatever you call yourself - is to sort through innumerable data, figure both human and equine motivations, peer into the future based upon the past, play the odds, disregard the odds and make a few choices on who to bet, in what combination and for how much. Chaos for sure.

For a better take on this from a far more accomplished writer, I give you Bill Barich, from the New Yorker, writing about the beginning of a racing day at Golden Gate Park:

"About eleven-thirty, fans began arriving in steady streams, and as I watched them come in I had the sense of form evolving, something entirely apart from horses and jockeys. It was modeled on symmetry and coherence. The electronic devices around the track reinforced the fiction in the warmup patterns they flashed: The infield tote board showed four rows of zeros balanced on top of another, the closed-circuit TVs featured tiny dots boxed at perfect intervals within a neatly squared grid. The gift-shop lady displayed her horsehead bookends in a horseshoe-shaped arc, the popcorn lady, her striped smock in harmony with the trim of her booth, checked to see that the empty cardboard boxes she would later fill were distributed in evenly matched stacks. The fiction was carefully, if unconsciously, projected, and didn't begin to dissipate until the national anthem had been played and the horses came sauntering up from the barns in single file for the first race. Then order gave way to chaos.

The moment when horses enter the paddock before a race can be a bad one. Statistics that earlier seemed so definitive are translated peremptorily into flesh, and flesh is heir to miseries - bandaged legs, a limp, a nervous froth bubbling on a filly's neck. Many times, I've heard people groan when they saw what their figures had led them to - some poor creature with downcast eyes."

Yikes! While many among us don't make daily or weekly trips to the track - the fiction, the reality still plays itself out even from our couches and computers. When you're going good, well, you think that just maybe you've figured it all out - the master of the Thoroughbred betting universe. More than likely your betting tendencies are matching the races played out in front of you (or vice versa) and sure enough that fantasy of personal manifest destiny will crumble away...and hopefully you'll have a few bucks left in your pocket to tell about it.

Of course one of the largest stages of Thoroughbred racing chaos is the Kentucky Derby. Variables, always many, even in maiden claimers running six furlongs in a field of eight, compound themselves for the Derby. Among the new and dynamic betting conundrums that show up on Derby Day:

A new distance - 10 furlongs - that a majority of these colts will never run again
The cavalry charge of a 20-horse field and the major post position problems and traffic that come with it
150,000 cheering...loudly
An almost always contested pace
A gigantic betting pool in which odds become nonsensical - 25-1 shots that should be 125-1 and exotics that pay handsomely even when two 5-1 shots finish in the money
Experience or lack there of by human connections
A souped up racing surface

And these are only a few of the many, many arbitrary winds that can blow through your handicapping mind. Which begs the question, how do cut through the white-noise, especially on the First Saturday in May to calmly, mathematically or esoterically find your winner?

The Problem with Lists - Derby and Otherwise

2011-03-28T21:11:00.001-04:00

We are a nation of list-makers - from the mundane (think grocery), to the somewhat inspirational (bucket), to the humorous (Letterman's Top Ten) and even banal (top ten ladies or men you'd like to lay horizontal with).

The problem with any list isn't what's included, but what is excluded. If we buy steak this week, well, we can't afford ice cream and you can't climb the peaks of the Himalayas and sit on the shores of Bali at the same time, even though both have boxes with check marks awaiting. Lists are filled with decisions.

My problem with Derby lists is the criteria set forth for the 10, 12 or 20 contenders that follow. Some may create their list based on the most current races, others may base a list on the "potential" they see or worse those following along may just leave the list-making up to the "experts." (The same experts who haven't picked a Derby winner since Reagan was in office).

I say this as a member of 12 bloggers that come up with the Derby Dozen every couple of weeks or so. Confused? Well, you shouldn't be because if you follow the Derby Dozen created by WirePlayers.com, you should get the sense that while my 11 counterparts and I know a few things about Thoroughbred horse racing, we don't take ourselves too seriously and we try to keep it light. After all what does anyone really know about the Kentucky Derby six weeks away from the big race?

Without further ado your Derby Dozen IV is just a click away....

Five Reasons to Jump Off Uncle Mo's Back

2011-03-26T07:16:00.004-04:00

In the buy, sell and trade world of the New York Stock Exchange, there is a body of evidence that shows a leading indicator of so many market crashes - lack of long term memory playing the Stock Exchange. With a higher burnout rate than Division I basketball coaches not making the NCAA tournament, Wall Street's collective memory is short - very short. By the time they hit their mid-40s the smart brokers/managers have cashed out or the not-so-bright ones just think climbing markets continue to climb. Without the collective reasoning of mature, wiser traders, whole markets suffer through horrific crashes.

Thoroughbred fans, handicappers, writers and bloggers don't suffer the same turnaround as our Stock Market friends (we're lifers), so why the group amnesia?

Uncle Mo will attempt to become just the second steed to turn the Breeders' Cup Juvenile/Kentucky Derby double. Meanwhile ask any blogger or bettor who their top Derby horse is and you're sure to get Uncle Mo. In the future pools this three-year-old son of Indian Charlie - Derby favorite himself who finished third way back in 1998 - was around 3-1 both times. Some among us would drool at the chance to get him at 2-1 still six weeks away from the big race.

Come on people! Uncle Mo just might be the next great Triple Crown Champion, but the only thing he has proven in his three-year-old year is that he can beat a bunch of also rans in a one-turn race that Gulfstream's racing director wrote for him.

Allow me to give you my five reasons to jump off Uncle's Mo's back and find another Derby horse or at least prepare yourself to maybe, just maybe get off a likely even money favorite in a 20-horse field.

The aforementioned 1-for-27 record of Breeders Cup/Kentucky Derby winners. My math ain't that great, but that comes out to about 3.5%. Willing to take low odds with such a low percentage?
Horse racing history has a funny way of repeating itself over and over. Sure Street Sense and Uncle Mo share a Churhill Downs win on Breeders' Cup Day and a two-race prep leading into the Derby. What they don't share is more important - Streets Sense's trainer Carl Nafzger pointed his home bred to the Derby facing far stiffer competition than Uncle Mo - a nose win and track record in the Tampa Bay Derby and a neck loss on Keenland's new, tiring polytrack. Meanwhile Todd Pletcher - an outstanding trainer - has pulled out the white gloves making sure his Two-Year-Old Champion shows up fresh as a daisy on Derby Day without a breath taken out of place. Dangerous.
There are just a few places breeding can be the great equalizer - races run on the grass and distances made for champions. Uncle Mo has proven to be a talented and explosive runner up to 1 1/16. Does this means he gets the 10 furlong distance of the Derby? No. His sire made a big move turning for home in the 1998 Derby before tiring through the stretch.
Fantasy doesn't equal reality. Simply because many horse racing fans "want" or "wish for" a Triple Crown winner doesn't mean it's going to happen. Those hoping that Uncle Mo can transcend the sport and somehow save it with a Triple Crown win are just a bit misguided. What Thoroughbred horse racing needs are lower take-outs, less racing days, tighter drug laws and stricter penalties for those breaking the rules. A nice story and good for horse racing, but Uncle Mo isn't going to save the sport with a Triple Crown sweep.
With all the hype surrounding Uncle Mo, the odds of just about any other horse winning will be heavily skewed in your favor, so take advantage.

I didn't even mention possible injuries and the Breeders' Cup Juvenile/Belmont double over the past 25 years, in which all the Juvenile winners since 1985 haven't even made the Belmont starting gate.

Would I like to see a Triple Crown champ? Sure, but I'd also like to have him around 25-1 on Derby Day and then as the second choice on Preakness Day. If a defeated Uncle Mo goes onto the Preakness that is just what everyone will get.

Fear The Factor in The Rebel

2011-03-19T10:53:00.002-04:00

Really, Bob Baffert shipping in with an improving 3-year-old, shouldn't that be enough to capture our attention? Sure The Factor will be the favorite in what, at first look, appears to be a wide open field. I say, the field is widely unpredictable, but only when considering who will finish second and third.

Here are the reasons to back The Factor:

Besides maiden winner, Saratoga Red, there is absolutely no speed to contend with The Factor. Even if Saratoga Red goes with The Factor, he'll probably stop after a half while facing winners for the first time.
The Factor is liable to get away with fractions of :24, :48 and 1:11 - if he is loose, as I suspect, then he is gone.
Baffert believes in his little horse. If you look at the works leading up to today's start - two six furlong jobs (bullets, mind you) - he's trying to build a bottom into The Factor. Baffert is giving the horse every right to improve and show he can go two-turns. I don't think 1 1/16 miles is outside his ability. Watch the jog out after the wire in San Vincente - The Factor never lets Sway Away get by him.

My suggestion: Play a trifecta or superfecta key wheel with The Factor on top of Archarcharch, Alternation, J P's Gusto, Caleb's Posse and Elite Alex. Six bucks for a 10-cent super key wheel - why not?

Derby Pool 2 Instructive for Betting Derby 137

2011-03-13T21:35:00.002-04:00

Betting the Kentucky Derby is both fascinating and frustrating...always lucrative, if you could only hit it.

The Derby will still be lucrative, even this year if Uncle Mo walks into the starting gate at even money - there's always plenty of 30-1 shots that can find their way into the deep exotic - trifecta and superfecta - tickets.

I find the Future Pools to be just plain frustrating. First of all, your horse has it to make the gate - physically and fiscally (enough graded stakes earnings). There are plenty of entries in Pool 2 yet to make the top 20 in graded stakes earnings and a few like Runflatout, Silver Medallion and Machen unlikely to get there. So any monies tossed their way would have been better used in trying to hit tonight's late double at Mountaineer.

But just like the Derby there are grossly overplayed horses and a few hidden jewels that would have been worth playing. So allow me to look back and forward through Derby Pool 2...

Tosses at any price: Archarcharach (closed at 50-1), Astrology (53-1), Comma to the Top (85-1), Gourmet Dinner (42-1), Machen (68-1), Runflatout (31-1), Silver Medallion (31-1) The Factor (32-1).

Intriguing Plays: Anthony's Cross (45-1), Elite Alex (31-1), JP's Gusto (61-1), Rogue Romance (36-1), Stay Thirsty (25-1), Sweet Ducky (75-1)

Possible Derby starters close to their probable Derby morning line, so why bother playing two months away: Dialed In (11-1), Santiva (31-1), Soldat (13-1), Sway Away (18-1)

Possible Underlays: To Honor and Serve (14-1), Mucho Macho Man (28-1), and Uncle Mo (3-1)

Let's simply take the betting advice above and parlay it into a Derby 137 $1 superfecta ticket:

To Honor and Serve, Mucho Macho Man and Uncle Mo over these three again over Soldat, Dialed In, Santiva and Sway Away over Anthony's Cross, Elite Alex, JP's Gusto, Rogue Romance, Stay Thirsty and Sweet Ducky.

If you're going to look into the future for betting, why not go big? I'll take a look back at this
$144 ticket on May 8, 2011. Good luck until then!

Derby Contests, Futures and Such

2011-03-09T21:38:00.000-05:00

As we approach just eight weeks out from Derby 137, here are some random thoughts...

If you're in the Run for the Roses contest - with a VIP trip to Derby 138 as the top prize - count yourself lucky if you didn't use Uncle Mo. While in the real world of Derby horseflesh, Uncle Mo still is the real deal, adding him to your Road to the Roses stable gives you a big doughnut for almost two-thirds of the contest run. Why? Because the Timely Writer isn't part of the prep schedule for the contest and coming out of Gulfstream, Uncle Mo won't run again until the Wood Memorial on April 9.

My stables are stinking up the joint, but my wife has a real good shot with her three stables that currently have 84 points (good for 210th place from about 15,000 entries), 50 points and 39 points. Among her horses running this weekend are: Brethren, Bench Points, Awesome Patriot and Jaycito.

I'm not a big Derby Futures guy. Maybe because each future bet I make seems to blow up shortly after the pool closes. For instance, I loved Rule last year, bet him in Pool 2 and he promptly went on the shelf for almost a year. This year I thought Clubhouse Ride was one of the bettor bombs, so the week after I bet him in Pool 1, he's down and out.

Right now Stay Thirsty and Elite Alex interest me, so there are two to avoid like the plague. Seriously, if you're going to play in the future pool demand odds double or triple of what you'd expect on Derby Day and don't make the wager until sometime Sunday when the real odds appear after the weekend's prep races.

TwinSpires.com started a new handicapping contest worth considering. On Thursday or Friday, you can purchase a $10 contest entry - up to three - to pick winners and get yourself entered into Saturday's $50 contest. Saturday afternoon winners earn their way into TwinSpires.com $1,000 buy in championship in November as well as some cold, hard cash. There's also end of the month contests, with the winner getting a trip to Vegas to play in the TwinSpires.com contest. For $10, I think it's worth a shot and check out the contest page here.

As far as weekend preps go:

Tampa Bay Derby - Brethen has every right to repeat with Beamer providing the best chance at a price
San Felipe - Have to root for my honey with Jaycito, Bench Points and Awesome Patriot. If Awewome Patriot finishes first, my wife's top-point stable will continue to roll.

Derby Dozen The Third

2011-03-05T11:38:00.000-05:00

We find ourselves just nine weeks out from Derby Day 2011 and the posting of the Wireplayers.com Derby Dozen Part III. In case you're wondering, my number one pick at this point in the game is Soldat. Yeah, I know no Fountain of Youth winner has won the Derby since Thunder Gulch in 1995, but as each Derby Dozen list is created, I favor those that have run over those that have yet to...Uncle Mo included. There is just so much that can and usually does go wrong with maturing three-year-olds that those that are already on the road by racing get a big thumbs up here!

The Gotham Stakes provides us for our Derby Dark Horse Candidate. The Big-A feature pits the top two morning line choices and a good test case for my preference of a colt who has run a couple of times in 201l vs. a highly considered two-year-old coming off the bench.

Stay Thirsty works out with the current Derby favorite, Uncle Mo. While Stay Thirsty has followed his more accomplished stable mate through several early morning works, this will be his first start of his three-year-old season. Last year he won a six furlong maiden sprint and finished behind Boys of Tosconova in the Grade I Hopeful Stakes at the Spa. He finished the year with a third place finish in the Juvenile.

Meanwhile, Toby's Corner has been slowly and successfully progressing this year winning both of his starts including the Whirlway Stakes last month - a race in which he came from last to first in the slop while also overcoming a slow pace. He is trained by Graham Motion and sired by Wood winner Bellamy Road - who earned like a 200 Beyer speed figure for the Wood win.

Just as I did in last week's Fountain of Youth Stakes, in which I took the recently and successfully running, Soldat, over the more highly touted To Honor and Serve, making his first start back off two stakes wins as a two-year-old, I will take Toby's Corner as today's Dark Horse.

Fountain of Youth All Stakes Pick 3

2011-02-25T15:12:00.003-05:00

As you grow as a handicapper, you should begin to realize what kinds of races you find the most success. For some it's the $5,000 claimer at Penn National for others allowance races on the turf - my liking and highest success rate comes from betting graded stakes races. This doesn't make me better than bettors hammering the windows on maiden claimers, my comfort level and handicapping style just happens to lead me to the highest levels of competition. All this being said, if you're good with a class or particular track, you really should learn to pass on races and places that aren't your strengths. But hey, it's your betting dollars....

Race 8 - Grade II Davona Dale, 1 mile, 3 YO Fillies

Interesting race with two main directions to take - potential, loose-on-the-lead or a couple of deep closers. Why not cover yourself and play both ways in case your pace analysis for the race is dead wrong, one way or the other.

Mending Hearts makes a big class leap for trainer Martin Wolfson, going from maiden special weights to stakes company. Mending Hearts' Beyer Speed figure progression has continued upward in each of her three lifetime starts, breaking from the rail under aggressive jockey Jose Lezcano, who will likely shoot her to the lead; she may never look back. The biggest price in the sequence. If Mending Hearts isn't good enough, Pomeroys Pistol is. This three-year-old daughter of Pomeroy is the most likely leader. I'm guessing she still won't get the respect she deserves and will break as third betting choice. Dancinginherdreams is the likely favorite and great things are expected of her. She was getting to Pomroys Pistol near the finish line in their last start together and this race is a furlong farther. Oh Carole and R Heat Lightning are tough to leave off the ticket, but you can't play them all.

Race 9 - Grade II, Hutcheson, 7 furlongs, 3 YO

This races features a few still on the Derby trail and a few that have fallen off the wagon, falling back to shorter, sprint distances. Here, you'll have to decide, despite where the colt lies on the road to roses, which will be your winner.

Crossbow is one still on the trail and winner at this tricky seven furlong distance in his last start about a month ago. Ramon Dominguez reunites with this son of Bernardini and they'll likely have to go for the lead breaking from the one hole. When you put up a 106 Beyer speed figure in your first race, it draws attention. Travelin Man did just that in a January 6 maiden special weight win going six furlongs on the Gulfstream strip. Too dangerous to leave off the the ticket, but regression is just as likely as a step up. Just about every other horse in here wants the lead, the problem being there is just one leader or worse a likely speed battle up front, opening the door for a late-moving closer. Since I've included what I feel are the two best up front speed candidates, I'll include just one possible closer, Leave of Absence. This once touted Triple Crown threat, will likely stick to the sprinters path with a win here. If the first two quarter-mile splits fall around 22.5, 45.5, he should have the best chance at getting to some tiring speed. The hardest horse to leave off is the intriguing Manciero, shipping in from Calder off four consecutive wins. I hate not including horses on such winning streaks, but feel the move up in class will take its toll.

Race 10 - Grade II Fountain of Youth, 1 1/8 miles, 3YO

Another top-notch Kentucky Derby prep race. For my full analysis of the race please click to my ThoroFan Handicapping post. The Reader's Digest version - three proven stake horses go up against five knocking on the door. On paper, To Honor and Serve, is the best of the lot and a deserving favorite. A two-time graded stakes win under the care of Hall of Fame trainer, Bill Mott, To Honor and Serve, is my early Derby favorite. That being said, all horses coming off extended layoffs - To Honor and Serve last raced in November - are liable to come up short their first time back. While I've gained respect for Gourmet Dinner and think Casper's Touch is the best of the improving horses, Soldat is my top choice here. Second off the layoff after winning for fun in a January 21 allowance race in slop, Soldat, gives ultra-sharp trainer Kiaran McLaughlin a great chance to cash his first Derby ticket.

Allow me to give you three options for a $1 Pick Three:

El cheapo: 1-8-9/1-3-7/1 for $9

Moderate: 1-8-9/1-3-7-9/1-7 for $24

Bankrolling: 1-4-8-9/1-2-3-7-9/1-2-4-7 for $80

Good luck with all your wagers!

Derby Future Pool #1

2011-02-19T21:42:00.006-05:00

Look, if you feel even a tinge of luck or the obligation to take a shot in any Derby pool, Number 1 is probably your best chance to make some dough - upsides may still yet to be revealed, favorites may get hurt and many other insanities or probablities are liable to occur from now until May 7. So if you're going to take a shot, take a big one.

Here's my top three:

Clubhouse Ride finished a game second to Tapizar in the Sham while beating next out winner, Anthony's Cross in the process. This son of Candy Ride likely improves in his next start in the San Felipe Stakes, so why not throw a few bucks in at 99-1 in case he does?

Rouge Romance closed into a slow Risen Star Stakes pace (24.67, 49.24, 1:13.77) while being beat by less than three lenghts. Considering this was his first start off his third place finish in the BC Juvenile, he's likely to improve next time out. At least he's one of the few to race before the pool closes on Sunday, and I say, 45-1 is better than you'll get May 7, if he goes.

Sweet Ducky was absolutely game while getting beat by Dialed In in Holy Bull Stakes. Sure he's more likely to fall of the trail than dramatically improve, but 80-1 might be worth $10 to find out.

If you're jumping in the pool, good luck, you'll need it.

Derby Dozen Part Deux

2011-02-12T14:13:00.000-05:00

This week Wireplayers.com has put out its Derby Dozen Part II - which I am humbly contribute to. You can check the top 12, at least in the minds of 12 fellow Thoroughbred bloggers, Derby contenders by clicking here. In case you are interested I went with the now horse - Dialed In - as my first place vote.

As for a dark horse, how about one that is on most Derby followers' radar, but might fall off the casual Derby fan's list?

Monzon, a Son of Derby winner Thunder Gulch, runs today in the Tampa's Sam Davis Stakes - the prep for the Tampa Derby. He's the second choice in the morning line behind Todd Pletcher's Brethen. Monzon made a sweeping move in his last stakes win, Aqueduct's Count Fleet Stakes. Today is his litmus test in which he'll become pretender or contender.

Holy Bull Stakes Pick Four

2011-01-30T12:41:00.002-05:00

With several near misses already at Gulfstream Park's winter meet, I'm taking another stab at a multi-race exotic - the Late Pick Four in Races 8-11. Come along for the ride if you'd like:

Race 8 - Forward Gal Stakes - Grade II at 7 furlongs for 3 YO fillies

The field of seven includes two much-anticipated returns here: BC Juvenile Filly runner up R Heat Lightning and well-bred Grade II stakes winner at two, Dancinginherdreams. R Heat Lightning has never been worse than second, including a Grade I win at Saratoga (Spinway Stakes run at today's 7 furlong distance) and Dancinginherdreams, has yet to lose in two starts including a one-turn mile win in Churchill's Pochontas Stakes. On class alone these two will be included on my ticket. But just in case speed matters more than class today, I'll toss Alexandra Rylee onto the ticket, simply because she posses lone speed today and speed kills. With odds close to double-digits she'll probably be double that on the Pick 4 with many singling either of the top choices mentioned above.

Race 9 - N1X Allowance - 5 furlongs on the turf

Most of the time you'd do well throwing a dart at such big fields going short on the turf. I'll include up to four on my ticket. Having looked over the past performances several times already, all of the 11 entrants have either come from the lower claiming ranks or would easily fit there. Removing class from the handicapping criteria, allow me to go with front-runners first and those pressing the pace second. A three-time claiming winner with enough early lick to get to the front, Alfeet Lass breaks from the two-hole with bugboy, Juan Delgado, in the seat - together they have three wins, and a second from six starts together. Lose None drops in from Hawthorne, where she broke the track record for 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf two races back. Bonus, she needs not the front. Which trainer stat do you like here for Twentyoneandtwo - first claim 38% returning almost $10 or the goose egg in 8 turf sprint tries? Dismiss at your own peril. How about taking a five-year-old making only her fourth lifetime start in She's a Ketch? Of course trainer, Chad Brown thrives with layoff horses and turf sprinters - winning at 43% in the latter.

Race 10 - Holy Bull Stakes - Grade III - 3 YO colts

Let me start by dismissing the first two in the morning line - Gourmet Dinner and Mucho Macho Man. Gourmet Dinner has been well traveled of late (Florida to Louisiana to Hollywood) and despite some nice sprinting wins in which closed, I don't see a fast pace developing up front for him to run at. Mucho Macho Man, I don't know. I think he's OK, but I'll bet against him at low odds. The two that I'm in with are: Black N Beauty and Dialed In. Like the filly's stake race, I only see one front-runner here and Black N Beauty is it. If Desormeaux can control the fractions, uncontested up front then we may have a runaway winner. I simply respect Dialed In's trainer, Nick Zito too much to dismiss him off of only one start. Who knows he could be the post time favorite.

Race 11 - $40K claiming - 6 1/2 furlongs 4 YO and up

If I'm still in the fray up until this point, I'll be crossing my fingers and hoping.

Got to be honest here - not sure if should single the outside speed in Duffy's Tavern or toss in a closer that may take advantage of too much jostling for the lead from at least two others likely to go with Duffy. When in doubt in a situation like this, I usually take who I think is the fastest and likely to outrun the competition and a presser/closer just in case the first two fractions are contested and go 21.5 and 44. My protection in this case will be two-year-old stakes winner and second-time off the bench starter, Dixie Band. For some reason, I'm thinking that Chairman Tucker may be laying just off waiting to pounce as well. The horse just keeps seeming to nag me into including, so I will.

The 50-cent Late Pick Four Play: 4-6-7/3-5-12/4-9/3-4-6 for $27. Good luck with your wagers.

Holy Bull - Derby 137's First Big Prep

2011-01-29T11:29:00.001-05:00

With Gulfstream Park's Sunday feature race, the Grade III Holy Bull, Kentucky Derby fever heats up - especially for those connections seeking much-needed graded stakes earnings for their three-year-old charges. While there are some interesting choices among the nine starters, I'm surprised that the field is not full, since whoever wins the race most likely punches their Derby ticket with the $240,000 winner's share. Even the $80,000 second-place prize isn't anything to laugh about so early in the Derby prep season.

Besides the current top seven graded stakes earners, there is room for at least 13 additional horses in Churchill's Derby gate. These seven: Uncle Mo, Pluck, Gourmet Dinner, Boys at Tosconova, Comma to the Top, Biondetti and Soldat are likely Derby starters based upon earnings that range from $1.2 million to $270,000. Of course these runners need to stay healthy and do something on the track, unless the connections decide to run on the first Saturday in May no matter what - see Homeboykris' 16th-place finish last year.

Back to Sunday's feature - Gourmet Dinner joins the fray with his gaudy $660,000 in graded stakes earnings thanks to his Delta Jackpot victory, which carried a million dollar purse. Unfortunately, Delta Jackpot winners haven't fared well when running up to the Derby. With Delta Downs bullring style track - a 7 furlong track, which requires three tight turns for 1 1/16 mile race - the Jackpot winner usually takes to sprinting. On the flip-side, the Holy Bull is a one-turn mile usually taken by sprinters and Gourmet Dinner breaks from the rail.

Two-time Derby winning trainer, Nick Zito, brings the most intriguing entrant to Sunday's race - Dialed In. This $475,000 purchase broke last in his one and only start in a November Churchill sprint. Going from 12 to first in six-and-a-half furlongs was impressive to say the least. Zito scratched Dialed In out of an allowance event two weeks ago due to a wet track, but immediately committed to this graded stakes event. Confidence or stupidity? With Zito off to a hot start and knowing the Derby trail well, I'd go with confidence.

Mucho Macho Man chased the second-leading Derby contender out of New York - To Honor and Serve - throughout Aqueduct's fall meet. Is he good enough or just not good enough to compete at this high level? I say he is a very good chaser, good enough for an underneath finish here and ultimately a decent sprinter up to a mile. What he brings to tomorrow's affair is the highest last-out Beyer, 99, which could prove dangerous with so many weaker speed figures evident.

Like Dialed In, Major Gain, brings a fall race over Churchill's track albeit a third place finish in the Grade II Kentucky Jockey Cup. Finishing behind the well-thought of Astrology and currently standing at 24th on the Derby graded-stakes standings, Major Gain becomes a major player with a win on Sunday.

From purely a handicapping stance, Black N Beauty makes a lot of sense here. Over a speed favoring track, Black N Beauty shows the only true front-running speed in this bunch. If this paltry-purchased colt ($2,500) sired by Devil His Due gets away with some soft early fractions around 24 seconds, he may be very hard to catch and would become this year's early Cinderella-story.

Kentucky Derby Starters No More

2011-01-23T17:33:00.001-05:00

A look at Gulfstream's Sunday feature - non-winners of two allowance at a mile - is quite instructive to what may happen to those pointed toward Derby 137. Instructive for the horse's failures at meeting an owner's and/trainer's Derby quest.

What makes the run up toward the Derby so interesting, so entertaining is the timing and progression of three-year-old horses up against deadlines to make necessary graded stakes earnings, stay healthy and in training and catch some much-needed luck. Race nine at Gulfstream on Sunday had three contenders that pursued last year's Run for the Roses - horses that are now prepping for something, anything else. Two made the starting gate on the first Saturday in May, one was hurt along the way and all have been away from the track a long time since.

William's Kitten made a mild attempt at the Derby following a runner up finish to Super Saver during Churchill's signature fall race for aspiring two-year-olds - Kentucky Jockey Cup. With that finish and just under the projected graded earnings necessary for a Derby run, William's Kitten started in his only race of 2010 - a third place finish in the Holy Bull Stakes before being put on the shelf for a exactly one racing year.

Homeboykris was the winner of what was a weak rendition of the Champagne Stakes during Belmont's 2009 fall meet. A grade one winner with enough graded stakes earned during his two-year-old season gave trainer Rick Dutrow the option of taking this son of Roman Ruler to Churchill Downs during his three-year-old season. Homeboykris started his three-year-old season with a pair of uninspiring preps - fifth in the same Holy Bull race William's Kitten finished third and a well-beaten second in an allowance field of six. But holding true to his "smoke 'em, if you got 'em" training mentality, Dutrow took Homeboykris to a 16th place Derby finish where he was clearly overmatched.

Mission Impaziable burst on the Derby trail in winning the Lousiana Derby, the Fair Grounds premiere Derby prep. It was a decent field that included stakes winner A Little Warm and eventual Belmont winner, Drosselmeyer. Still it was a slow running in which much of the field either backed up or didn't fire. Mission Impaziable may have just inherited the best trip, but still he was onto the Derby - finishing a respectable 9th after getting caught in the expected Derby traffic. It was his sixth career start.

None of these one-time promising three-year-olds won today. William's Kitten stepped awkwardly out of the gate and didn't really get running, finishing seventh of nine. Homeboykris only menaced for a bit during mid-stretch before flattening out and the 3-5 favorite, who I singled in my 50-cent Pick 5, Mission Impazible ran a respectable second. All were beaten by hard-knocking, six-year and 11-time winner Caixa Eletronica, while not flashy or remarkable in his past performances, he beat a bunch of "Derby contenders."

I wonder where this crop of Derby-horses will land this year and into next - especially if May 7, 2011 doesn't work out so well.....

Derby Dozen

2011-01-19T20:47:00.004-05:00

From It's Never Too Early To Start Department: I am happy to report that I am one of 12 bloggers taking part in WirePlayers.com's Derby Dozen. If you're in the mood despite the snow blanketing all of the northeast and 10 days away from the first big Kentucky Derby prep race (Grade 3 Holy Bull at Gulfstream with $240,000 winners share), click away and see what some prognosticators think more than three months away from the Run for the Roses.

To go along with each Derby Dozen post, I'll put out a current dark horse candidate.

Awesome Partriot gets the first nod along the road. This son of Awesome Again should have no problem with races up to nine furlongs - really no one knows if a horse will stay the 10 furlongs until they try on Derby Day - which most of the major Derby preps are run at. He's stakes placed, third in Hollywood Prevue at 7 furlongs, and an allowance winner in his last start at two-years-old racing one mile on Santa Anita's natural dirt.

Oh did I mention that he's trained by Bob Baffert, who at last count had 50 Derby hopefuls. With a return to dirt Baffert's winning at a crazy clip out west (44% win and 74% in the money to date) and that's only going to continue with his three-year-old charges.

Listen, it's early, but you could do worse than a two-turn winner on dirt by a Breeder's Cup champion, trained by Baffert, currently sitting between 100-1 to 250-1 at Vegas sports books.

New Look for 2011

2011-01-09T21:01:00.004-05:00

Just playing around with my blog design in the new year.

It's been away a while, but I'm planning to gear up and blog away now that the trail to the Derby is being in the Sunshine State, Left Coast, Arkansas and the cold of the Big A. Looking forward to it all...write soon...

The Case for Zenyatta

2010-11-07T08:32:00.003-05:00

If you're still one of the hardened, Zenyatta doubters, even with the brilliant mare's historic near miss on Churchill's dirt, against the boys and amongst the finest Thoroughbreds, well, take time out from telling your 5-year-old there's no Santa and listen up...

Let's take three issues among national media/horse racing experts/bloggers that were or can be argued the day after the Breeders' Cup Classic. Please allow me to speak for Zenyatta and her connections, even though at this stage of her career such explanations are truly unnecessary.

Claim #1: Zenyatta beat mostly cream puffs on her way to winning 19 straight, right?

This requires a "yes," and "no" response. When a decent claiming horse wins three straight, everyone jumps aboard willingly, betting the nag down to 3-5 hoping to cash. But when Zenyatta, racing at the top of the sport's long and deep talent ladder, rips off Grade 1 win after Grade 1 win, her connections are accused of playing it soft and easy.

First of all, let's admit that the world's greatest fillies and mares weren't beating down the door ready to face Zenyatta. Zenyatta's connections can't be blamed (pun, ouch not intended) for trainers and owners ducking her. But ladies and gentlemen these weren't exactly races restricted to statebreds or starter allowances that Zenyatta was winning; they were Grade 1 races for goodness sakes!

Are Zenyatta's connections guilty of taking an easy, conservative road to the Breeders' Cup Classic? Sure. But who among us would take the sportsman's route and travel cross country or even across the world risking a chance at history? Anyone can talk a good game, miles away from the shed row. Why don't you take your dwindling 401K and invest in an aggressive small, capital fund and maybe double your money? The risk simply isn't worth the possible reward when it's your money.

Team Zenyatta mapped out a plan for 20-0 and came within a head of pulling off. They should have been roundly applauded, instead of being skewered by supposed experts. "Expert" being loosely defined as someone who has made at least one winning bet.

Claim #2: Staying close to home for 17 out of her 20 wins wasn't in Thoroughbred racing's best interest.

Allow me to answer with a question for you: Why would or should Zenyatta's connections complete and compete a series of races for the good of all Thoroughbreds? Winning is the name of the Thoroughbred game and Zenyatta's connections amazingly put her in the best position to win for three straight years!

Claim #3: Against a good/great field on dirt, Zenyatta's weakness would be exposed.

This knock was answered around 6:48 pm Eastern Standard Time on Saturday. Even though she was markedly slow, even for her, getting into stride, Zenyatta did everything but win yesterday. More gallant in defeat than Blame was in winning - he had the better trip at his favorite track.

As for the Horse of the Year discussion - Without Zenyatta racing yesterday, far fewer racing and sports fans care about the sport. A Zenyatta win was what almost everyone was routing for and isn't that worth something for the sport, Zenyatta and her connections?

Zeeennnnyyyyyytttaa.......

2010-11-06T20:23:00.005-04:00

...Blllaaaaame has won it!

While the Churchill lights where hot and bright and Trevor Denman ramped up his voice for a call into history (think Al Michael's asking if we believed in miracles), the curtain abruptly fell on Zenyatta's Hollywood ending.

That's horse racing. And Blame joins the ranks of Touch Gold and Birdstone as spoilers of history and the possibility of horse racing taking over the sports page for at least one day.

But who knows, maybe the collective sports mind will pay attention despite the ending that came up just a neck short. One thing fans and gamblers alike should be able to agree on is that Zenyatta is a fantastic Thoroughbred and a true champion. As usual she ran up to her competition and sent us all away winners - whether we cashed a ticket or not.

Breeders' Cup Saturday

2010-11-05T21:04:00.004-04:00

Of course I mentioned four winners in yesterday's blog, but didn't play any of them straight up or hit them in an exotic betting. On to expectations for Saturday.

Juvenile Turf

The Europeans were shut out yesterday, which makes me wonder if horses like Manatoba and Master of Hounds will follow suit by under preforming? Of these two I like Master of Hounds better for a least a piece of the action. Deciphering Dreams is interesting in the fact that he refused to go through an opening and had to alter course in his first stakes try - finishing third in the Grade 3 Pilgrim. Pluck will have a lot of ground to make up, if he wants a top four finish. But the one I like the best is Soldat, who regressed off a big stakes win at Saratoga on a yielding Belmont course. He should rebound here for the win.

Sprint

As noted yesterday, the best part of the Churchill's dirt track was towards the middle. The F&M Sprint also showed the value of previously winning at Churchill as Dubai Majesty was an easy winner. Cash Refund, Riley Tucker, Atta Boy Royand Warrior's Reward have all won under the Twin Spires and will come from the middle of the track with Cash Refund probably going off at the highest price of all. All this being said Smiling Tiger gets my nod for the win coming for the east to the dirt. Contrarian, I know.

Turf Sprint

What a great way to kick off a Pick 6...yikes. As it should be, there is lots of speed to contend with over the 5 furlongs. Can any one horse hold through a 22 second quarter and 45 second half? Most likely not. The two most likely beneficiaries of a red, hot pace are Chamberlain Bridge and Silver Timber. Chamberlain Bridge likes to win and likes to win at Churchill. If he can get first run off the rail, he'll be tough. Since being claimed by Chad Brown, Silver Timber hasn't done much wrong winning 6 of his last 8 races. I like them both with Central City who will throw down a sub 22 second quarter and then go as long as he can.

Juvenile

The Breeders' Cup was not kind to chalky runners yesterday, so why should it be so on Saturday - take a stand against Uncle Mo on this stance alone. In the Filly Juvenile, Awesome Feather and R Heat Lightning basically ran around the track together off the rail while finishing one, two. The three most likely candidates - besides the chalk - are Boys At Tosconova, J. B.'s Thunder and Stay Thirsty. Box them all and cheer for something.

The Mile

For my full take on The Mile follow this link to Goldikova's Three-Peat: Are Your a Skeptic or True Believer. In short it comes down to Goldikova and Proviso. Something tells me Bill Mott is going to have a big day on Saturday.

Dirt Mile

The only way I can figure this race is like this: Mad Flatter takes to the front in the three-path, keeping Tizway to his inside or forcing him to go out and around him. Here Comes Ben and Thisskyhasnolimit bide their sweet time in mid-pack waiting to make a move. Toss at his post and cross your fingers last year's Vineyard Haven and Gayego doen't show up.

Turf

Europeans may finally turn the tide, maybe not. No Arc winner has doubled his/her win into a Breeders' Cup victory. Workforce may be special, but I think he is up against too much history, no matter how special he may be. If this race falls together for one horse, it's Al Khali. There really is no pace horse here and Al Khali may dictate soft easy fractions of 25, 51, 1:16, etc. and prove hard to catch. He and Winchester may just trade punches one more time heading to the wire together - damn the Euros.

Classic

Zenyatta's final run into history, right? If not her, then who? Haynesfield is on the muscle and appears ready to carry his speed a classic distance one more time - drawing outside Quality Road helps his chances greatly. Blame sits right in the middle of the track and owns three wins from four Churchill starts and will be Zenyatta's main challenge from off the pace.

Thoughts on Friday's Breeders Cup

2010-11-01T21:51:00.005-04:00

No picks, just some impressions of Friday's Breeders' Cup races....

Marathon

Is it possible to have a speed duel in a 1 3/4 marathon? Sure if Eldaafer and Gabriel's Hill decide to go at it early. If one defers, there's a chance for a loose-on-the-lead type clicking off 25-26 second quarters around three turns. I like Gabriel's Hill to do just that at some pretty hefty odds. With all these Breeders' Cup races Churchill experience does count and A.U. Miner and Prince Will I Am both will bring big prices to the table if they can pounce on some tiring speed up front.

Juvenile Turf

Big improvement or proven form is the main question here with several foreign invaders tossed in for confusion. Winter Memories will answer both questions with another big effort. In her last, she seemed to win for fun coming six wide. Allure d'Amour ran a few ticks faster than Winter Memories will registering a very similar Beyer speed figure coming off a maiden score - of course she is breaking from the grandstand this time. Kathmanblu and More Than Real are stakes placed and looked to be the main closing threats along with chalky 'Memories. Finally Tale Untold looks battle-tested and beat 18 of 19 competitors in her last while gaining late.

Filly and Mare Sprint

This tricky race can only be parred down to five for me: Champagne d'Oro beat a decent Test field at Saratoga with ease. Her latest fourth place finish at Keenland was simply a tune up for this. Dubai Majesty loves Churchill with three wins from six starts, but has yet to win at the tricky seven furlong distance. Friday may be her day. Informed Decision is likely to reach her highest odds this year and she simply relishes the seven furlong distance, winning seven of eleven. The deftly managed Rightly So is 7-3-1 from 11 starts and 3-for-3 at seven furlongs; her last a front-running romp at the Spa. Whether or not Secret Gypsy goes, Rightly So could actually have the front to herself.

Juvenile Filly

Pace will not be the question here. There will be plenty of competition for the front and either a very strong-willed two-year-old will lead them all the way around or more likely a mid-pack or deep closer will come flying late. Awesome Feather intrigues me the most since horses coming off the deep, sandy track at Calder usually put up slower times and can be vastly underrated - even if they are 5-for-5 like Awesome Feather. According to Daily Racing Form's Mike Welsch neither R Heat Lighting nor Tell a Kelly looked comfortable over the Churchill strip this week, so I'm tossing two of the chalkier prospects. Off of her Frizette win, A Z Warrior may be the favorite, and is almost a must use off that last effort. Coming from the other end of spectrum, Richard Dutrow had a 13-length maiden winner Believe in A.P. cruise at Philly Park on October 9. Will she be an all of sudden champ or just a chump filling the field?

Indian Gracey gets favorable post number 1. She is a threat to hit the front and just keep going here. Delightful Mary has made a very favorable impression working on dirt for the first time after two Woodbine synthetic track wins. A relatively unknown trainer/jockey combination and lack of dirt racing experience will provide high odds for anyone willing to take a shot.

Filly and Mare Turf

Midday is one of several terrifying European invaders. She seems push-button in winning three straight Group 1 wins. Play against her at your own risk. For some reason I am attracted t0 the chances of Eclair de Lune - a foreign invader that won the coveted, Grade 1 Beverly D. at Arlington's European-like turf. You'll get a price for her. Harmonious seems to have a lot to overcome despite her talent - facing older competition for the first time and stepping out an eighth of a mile longer. Too much for me.

Ladies Classic

A two-horse race for me - one leading early or one coming late. Life at Ten has worked extremely well since her Grade 1 smash, winning Belmont's Beldame easily. The one-hole could be problematic, unless pilot Johnny V. saves all the ground, only to swing out late to win. Blind Luck will simply take her time and lope around until the real running starts on turn for home. Impressive win at Churchill in May.

Important Note: In looking at Churchill's racing charts the last three days, the middle of the track - both long and short, on the dirt - is the place to be. Horses are consistently winning in the two-, three- and four-path. Unless track maintenance plays with the track this weekend, the rail is not the place to be.

How Many Times is Enough?

2010-09-21T20:05:00.004-04:00

A curious thing happened during last Friday's card at Belmont. Among the splintered fields with main track only entrants abounding from four races being rained off the turf, there came the potential for one horse to become a beaten favorite...again.

This unlikely candidate numbered 15 in your program actually was coming off a year plus layoff and gunning for six straight loses as the favorite - amazingly four of these loses came at odds under a dollar. Allow me to repeat, this five-year-old son of Unbridled Song's had lost at odds of 80 cents on a dollar, 80 cents again, 90 cents and 20 cents. Then in his last start of 2009 he drifted all the way up to almost 2-1 as part of an entry, but the result was the same - defeat.

I wonder is this some sort of record? Karma induced defeat? High-powered connections of Darley and Albertrani just not knowing when to give up or give in? What I do know is that the public, the betting pool, has continually been fooled by this well-bred, good looking steed named Unbridled's Heart.

In his first start way back in May of 2008, he showed more than just heart. Unbridled's Heart blew away a decent field of maidens over a good racing surface going 1 1/16 miles. He won by double digits and posted a triple digit Beyer. Impressive to say the least. Since then this lightly raced horse ( 1 win, 2 seconds and 3 thirds in six lifetime starts) has broken poorly, just missed twice and gave it up after holding a clear lead on a slow-paced nine furlong race at the Spa.

So there he was sitting at 65 cents on a dollar in a four horse field, the only entrant there for the main track. My eyes lit up. Now here's a chance to cash, but with only three contenders to choose from, I didn't go heavy on a win ticket. I simply signaled eventual winner Mad for Smarty going off as second choice at almost 3-1, in a modest Pick 3. Unfortunately, I didn't get to the payoff as I missed on one of the three races in the sequence. Unbridled's Heart finished an OK second, but yet again didn't hit the winner's circle.

A few days later, it still makes me wonder if Unbridled's Heart will roll out as the betting choice, once again. Sure he's always in the money, but clearly he is a bet against on a win ticket. When will the public learn on this overbet underachiever? Or better yet, when will I cash on such a proposition? If you can't get off a now six-time beaten favorite, you should pick another hobby....

Playing Favorites

2010-09-10T21:16:00.003-04:00

Usually playing short-priced horses too many times is a recipe for disaster. Since favorites only win 30-35% of the time, you're bound to lose most of the time. Maybe you'd lose more often searching for better odds, but the expectations of winning that comes with low odds will be enough to drive you nuts when you start to lose more often than you win.

That being said, my initial Handicapper's Corner post on Thorofan is all about playing the favorite, Secret Gypsy, in Delaware Park's Endine Stakes on Saturday. For more on my "supposed" insight just click away Thorofan, Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association, Inc.

Travers' Day Pick Four

2010-08-27T23:05:00.003-04:00

Race 9 - Grade III Victory Ride Stakes for fillies

Beyondallboundarys– tactical speed and steady improvement in last three races, Amoss ain’t coming for nothing

Katy Now – now horse, ready to fire fresh on cut back in distance

Race 10 - Grade I Ballerina - wide open affair

Rightly So – gets the rail, off two excellent races, 2-for-2 at distance and fast works

Warbling – totally missed break in last and still ran well, should rate her back for one run

Jessica Is Back – was able to rate in last and got a rest before big time try here, grade one winner

Informed Decision – sprint champion working up to big score?

Qualia – what’s not to like, has finished first or second in all six of her races

Pretty Prolific – has the ability to close from back of pack if pace becomes too fast up front

Race 11 - Grade I King's Bishop for colts

D’Funnybone – five time stakes winner and four times seven furlong winner with two wins over the likely favorite Discreetly Mine (bounce candidate)

Bulldogger and Bank Merger are both stepping way up in class over impressive wins during their short careers, if either can win you get 5-1 or better

Race 12 - Travers' Stakes

Fly Down – should see a hot pace in front of him and has the ability to engulf the front runners with one strong move…the single

The $1 Pick Four Play: 7-9/1-6/3-5-6/8 for $36. Good luck with all your wagers!

Arlington All Stakes Pick 3 - Quickie

2010-08-21T10:38:00.003-04:00

Quick and Easy

Secretariat

#1 Paddy O'Prado - has faced the best of his division on dirt and turf and is best on turf; single

Beverly D

All - since Tuscan Evening went down, the door is wide open here and I wouldn't be surprised if any of the ten entrants win

Million

Two ways to go: 1) Real cheap, singling #6 Gio Ponti or 2) toss in #9 Tazeez, who likely gets a loose lead and could make every pole a winning one - either way it's a cheap play 1/All/6-9 costs you $20.

Good luck with your wagers!

Saratoga Video Finally Completed - Enjoy!

2010-08-10T21:44:00.004-04:00

A little more than a year in the making - actually the video footage sat on the shelf since August 2009 before I started editing this summer. I was hoping to have this ready by the Spa's opening weekend, but life, racing and betting got in the way.

I hope you enjoy this 7-minute plus video. Excuse some herky-jerky footage, as everything was shot hand-held without the use of a tripod.

Pick Four Saratoga Jim Dandy/Diana Day

2010-07-30T20:21:00.006-04:00

Let's get right to it...

Race 8 - NY-Bred Maidens, 1 1/16 Turf

Simply put these races - most of the time - go to the right connections. That being said Chingachgook is an obvious pick. This son of Empire Maker has been knocking on the door for Graham Motion in his last two, sits in the garden spot for new jock Leparoux, who excels on the turf. No trainer is hotter than Chad Brown, picking up his fourth win yesterday from only eight starts. Atitlan has some decent turf pedigree and has been working steadily towards this unveiling. Look no further....

Race 9 - Diana - Grade 1 F&M 1 1/8 Turf

Wow! You won't see many Grade 1 fields as tight and talented as this one. Each entrant has a graded stakes win with Proviso, Phola and Forever Together having multiple Grade 1 victories. I see two ways go, using the three top-tier fillies or mare listed above or hitting the "All" button. Call me chicken, but the "All" button is where I'm going. Just as an argument can be made against the rest of field, let me make a case for: My Princess Jess (win over the track an only a neck and half away from Proviso in last); Dynaslew (has awoken in last three with new trainer Seth Bezel and has potential to wire field); Shared Account (back-to-back top notch efforts) and Maram (did I mention she is trained by Chad Brown?) Dismiss any of these at your own risk.

Race 10 - Jim Dandy - Grade II - Colts 1 1/8

A field of nine that lacks the star power of Monmouth's Haskell and as I see it, a much easier race to handicap. A Little Warm and Miner's Reserve put up two of the best Beyer speed figures of all three-year-olds in their one-two finish in an optional claimer at Deleware. I like A Little Warm more since he doesn't need the front as much as Miner's Reserve and there looks to be several others that want the front in here. The classiest of all here is probably Fly Down. Besides his steadied Louisiana Derby run, he's won two and just missed in the Belmont Stakes.

Race 11 - $25,000 Claiming, 3YO and Up, 1 1/16 Turf

The definition of a difficult handicapping race - six last out winners from the first eleven entrants...whew. If I get this far, the three that will be on my ticket are: Chromospere goes for mediocre jockey turned crazy good trainer Rudy Rodriguez. You simply have to include this one off Rodriguez's recent success! Ticondero is two for his last three and you might get a price due to his trainer and his shipping in from Churchill. Although with Leparoux up, he could end up the favorite. British Banker is my top choice even though you have to go back to February for his last win. Going from an allowance starter to this level may even be considered a class drop and by the way, Chad Brown trains....

For those keeping track, that's a $1 Pick Four of: 1-5/ALL/5-9/1-3-9 for $84

Off to the Spa

2010-07-22T19:52:00.007-04:00

Tomorrow has come...off to Saratoga for the 16th straight year. I was hoping to have a 7-minute video on The Spa for your viewing pleasure, but it's only 90 percent done and I'm out of time...check back next week and it should be up. It's pretty good.

CCA Oaks - let's give two longer shots than even money favorite Devil May Care a long look.

Connie and Michael has every right to improve in her sixth lifetime start and third start off the layoff. Looks to turn the tables against the top choice and has the tactical speed to do so.
Acting Happy was absolutely determined to win the Black Eyed Susan in her last. Rick Dutrow brings her back off that race and scores 32 percent will such layoffs. If she is quick enough, she could give Devil May Care all kinds of problems, tracking just outside her flank.

Choosing What's Most Important

2010-07-17T07:52:00.005-04:00

That's your charge - handicapper, gambler whatever you may call yourself - deciding what of the many, many pieces of information available is the most important in making your betting decisions. And that's just for one race! Playing multi-race wagers or deep exotics takes a replication of excellent effort several times over. It's no wonder the very best of us hit between 20 and 33 percent of the time. Maybe you'll get hot and just "see" the races for a limited time with multiple big ticket hits, but this will be followed by longer, colder streaks.

With so much numerical data packed into past performances, whether they hail from DRF.com, Brisnet, Equibase or where ever, there is more than enough information to keep a handicapper busy for hours on end. The keys are to limit what information you'll use to determine winning wagers and what information you'll disregard. Knowing everything simply makes placing winning wagers more difficult.

If the above statement sounds counterintuitive consider this excerpt from Nassim Nicholas Taleb's book The Black Swan, The Impact of the Highly Improbable:

"Show two groups of people a blurry image of a fire hydrant, blurry enough for them not to recognize what it is. For one group, increase the resolution slowly, in ten steps. For the second, do it faster, in five steps. Stop a point where both groups have been presented an identical image and ask each of them to identify what they see. The members of the group that saw fewer intermediate steps are likely to recognize the hydrant much faster. Moral? The more information you give someone, the more hypotheses they will formulate along the way, and the worse off they will be. They see more random noise and mistake it for information."

Sound familiar? What really do you need to know about a race to determine a winning wager?

Some pace information - who will take the lead? will she have company? does the pace scenario favor your pick or will he have to work against it?
Some rider/trainer stats - you can't dismiss a trainer that wins 33% with first time claimers, 28% off a long layoff or a jockey that moves a horse up on the turf. (An aside: great and well-know jockeys bring horse odds down, but don't necessarily get them to the winner's circle.)
Limited breeding info - does she have winning siblings on the turf? can he get 10 furlongs? does the sire have a high percentage of first-time winners?
Track bias if any exist - for instance hardly any horse held the lead at Monmouth yesterday (July 16) discounting all front-runners, period!
How much are you willing to bet?

Beyond this you must develop a system, you are comfortable with. Some may use speed numbers of some kind exclusively, track bias or some developed power rankings based upon their own inputed data. Does this make anyone a consistent winner? Hardly.

Check out the horse wagering pick websites and they'll give you up to four possible picks per race, then use those four picks to show you how much you could have won - if you somehow managed top put their four picks per race into a winning Pick 3, Pick 6 or even exacta tickets. It's bull...throw enough on the wall and see what sticks and then tout your winning shit! A simple Pick 4 using four picks per race is a $256 ticket for every buck.

Pick what's important, toss what's unnecessary, choose wisely and put yourself in a position to get lucky!

TBA - WTF - The Solution Under Our Nose?

2010-07-08T20:38:00.007-04:00

The subject of this post comes from Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance and other members will be posting their views to the questions below. These posts can be seen by clicking atop the blog roll to your left.

We all love Keenland, Del Mar and Saratoga; Will reduced racing dates, like Monmouth, be the future of live horse racing? Is a reduction of racing dates the best way to ensure Thoroughbred racing's future?

The answer to the above questions are maybe...and this comes from the blogger who suggested it.

Tracks (or should I write race-casinos) from Altoona, IA to Bossier City, LA to Erie, PA may already have the answer - slots or gaming supporting their purses. Even our neighbors north of the border have figured out a way to offer claimers almost double their asking price and maiden purses hovering around $70,000 at Woodbine Racing and Slots.

Of course this takes a population willing to put up with gaming/slots and a governing body able to pull it off. (Here in the great Commonwealth of Massachusetts where the Legislature meets almost 300 days a year, a gaming bill sits in committee with no current option to support the state's two horse racing facilities - one Thoroughbred and one Standard bred. And this comes almost 15 years after two casinos were built in neighboring Connecticut carting thousands of Massachusetts residents and gambling/entertainment dollars south of their state border everyday.)

The math for gaming-supported racing is not hard to follow. A percentage of said gaming dollars goes to purses, greater purses attract more horsemen looking for a living and owners for a return on their investments, more horses means bigger, more competitive fields which attracts more bettors and ultimately translates into more handle, more revenue back to the horsemen, the state and the track. Does anybody lose here?

For those states without the guts to bring gaming in, Monmouth's plan - reducing dates to increase purses and revenue - is the best way to ensure a tomorrow. As it stands right now, Monmouth is on a pace to pull in the same total handle as it did in 2009 in half the racing dates. This means average daily handle is twice what is was last year. How many entertainment business do you know that can generate such equal revenue in half the time?

Of course Monmouth's great gamble comes at a cost. Their purses now average almost $700,000 a race day more than last year and the track will offer about $17 million more in purses to generate the same handle. In addition, with only 50 racing dates over a longer stretch of time, the average Joes working the windows, cleaning the facility and possibly even those along the backstretch will have less days of earning pay.

The tracks with short meets like Del Mar, Keenland and Saratoga have history and destination on their side. The racing in each of these venues is top-notch and bettors flock to the track or to their simulcast outlets or computers to bet the higher quality of their racing.

What other everyday tracks like Suffolk Downs or Aqueduct or even Santa Anita, without any casino dollars coming in the near future, have to do is to make their tracks destinations through either shorter seasons, limited days, greater promotion and heck even improvement in customer service and experience. Of course getting someone to travel by the East Boston gas tanks or the into the cold of a New York City winter is a little tougher than looking out at the mountain backdrop that is Santa Anita, which has its great share of history on its side.

Finally even racetracks with casino/slot action should limit their race dates to encourage fans to come out and see the "event" that is horse racing. Rolling it out daily, as the industry did in the less competitive times of its heyday in the 40s, 50s, 60s and 70s, is one thing. But running a field of seven, $12,500 maidens on a Wednesday afternoon when most people work, don't care and find it easier to buy a lottery ticket, is another thing all together.

Like Monmouth other states should bite the bullet and try something new like limiting dates, working interstate, if need be, to develop a circuit of racing or supply purses that bring quality horses and people' gambling dollars out. For horse racing will exist in some form or another 30 years from now. It's up to racetrack owners, state governments and the horsemen to figure out a better model to deliver a quality product to its handicappers and gamblers.

Rock Stars Get Rock Star Treatment

2010-07-02T11:29:00.006-04:00

At the bequest of the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance I will put my feelings down on whether or not Jess Jackson deserves or should demand greater purses when his prized filly, Rachel Alexandra races. Other opinions will be posted throughout the day at the TBA webpage, which you can reach by clicking on the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance atop the blog roll on your left.

Right or wrong, Rachel Alexandra's connections will push purses whenever and where ever they decide to race her. While some may feel that is unfair or outside the "normal" way Thoroughbreds run for top money, it's all about demand baby.

Here are several reasons why Jess Jackson will simply be handed or request higher purses:

Rachel Alexandra draws crowds, which in turn draws money to the track that offers the purse. Could Oaklawn have recouped its $1 million purse for Rachel and Zenyetta, probably not, but the track would have received more than $1 million in free publicity throughout the country and in the long run this would have been good for their business.
Rachel Alexandra is one of the few Thoroughbreds to transcended our beloved sport and make it into sports pages and onto SportsCenter whenever she runs. This draws attention to the filly and the sport in general, which is never a bad thing. All horse racing wagering outlets gain greater business - simulcast, live and on-line - when she runs.
Which came first, the offers for more purse money or the demand by Jackson? Maybe it doesn't matter, but if the offers were made (by Jackson holding out on his decision to run), why shouldn't he 1) run Rachel Alexandra for more money and 2) continue to make the demand? This is like saying professional athletes shouldn't take the many millions owners pay them...come on, this is America!

Just one bloggers opinion...

I'm In

2010-06-20T14:42:00.004-04:00

OK so I'm in at the TBA - not "Too Be Announced," but the Thoroughbred Bloggers Alliance. I'm not sure what this says about the group - allowing me in that is - but I'm happy to be aboard.

Sorry I haven't posted lately. Blame it on the late nights watching the Celtics - ugh - and the close of another the school year. (When I'm not handicapping or blogging I'm a public school principal.) Now that the Celtics are toast and tomorrow will be my last day of school, I'll be geared up from the first day of summer to the close of Saratoga.

In the works is a video I'm putting together on Saratoga. I hope to have it up before the opening day at the Spa. I'll be on the back lawn for this year's opening...anyone else going to be there???

Finally, Happy Father's Day to all the dads out there! And thanks again for allowing me to join the group.

Triple Crown Reflections

2010-06-08T23:24:00.003-04:00

Super Saver gets super ride
Best betting angle - rider changes
Once again possibly the best horse - Eskendereya like Quality Road - sidelined before Derby Day
Huge exotic payouts through Triple Crown cards
Belmont to Travers victory for Drosselmeyer?
Lookin at Lucky has the inside track for best three-year-old
Borel approaching folk hero status at Churchill and beyond
Firsts for good guys - Smith and Mott and newcomer Garica
Back to the reality of finding a winner from $35,000 claimers on Pick 3 and 4 tickets

Belmont Stakes on the Cheap

2010-06-04T20:36:00.004-04:00

Here's my take on the Belmont Stakes and the five other stakes races on the card with some very affordable and quite hittable multi-race wagers.

Race 6 Woody Stephens Stakes, 7 furlongs for 3 YOs

A compact but fairly talented field here. For me it comes down simply to the horse I believe is the fastest - Eightyfiveinafifty. Take away the Churchill mud and the bizarre Whirlaway Stakes in which his bridle broke and he ran off the track, and he's run two triple-digit Beyer scores. While D'Funnybone is 3-for-3 at the tricky, 7 furlong distance and doesn't need the lead, Eightfiveinafifty may force his hand to go along at a rapid pace - one that he may not be able to keep up with. Derby entrant, Discreetly Mine, is the wild card.

Race 7 Just a Game, 1 mile turf for fillies and mares

Another compact field with a few stand outs...Speak Easy Gal is the price play at 7-2, if there is such a thing. Castellano, who excels on the turf, will likely play catch-me-if-you-can with a loose lead. Proviso, a two-time Grade I winner and against the boys no less in her last. Must respect. Phola has won three straight in going from allowance to grade three to grade two company with rising Beyers in each, which makes her tough to ignore.

Race 8 True North Handicap, 6 furlongs for older males

A crowded field that can be pared down to three contenders. Custom for Carlos brings his A-game just about every time and excels at this sprint distance. Strasbourg is an X-factor moving way up to Grade II company coming off a tough allowance loss at a mile. Trainer Albertrani wins at just about 25% second off a mid-layoff and you'll get at least double digit odds for this $450,000 purchase out of champion Friends Lake. Checklist rounds out the top three coming off a triple-digit score and a short rest. He'll either win by 10 lengths or lose by 25.

Race 9 Acorn, 1 mile for 3YO fillies

Really no standout in this division, so just about everyone is live here, but let me try to narrow it down to a little. Tanda goes from synthetic to dirt and west to east here, but owns the last two highest Beyers. Hollywood strip plays like dirt and trainer Dan Hendricks isn't bringing her all this way for nothing. While Seeking the Title dropped her rider during the Black Eyed Susan Stakes, she should not be faulted for this and Desormeaux comes right back to ride. Streaker from the powerful Phipps Stable has every right to improve off two, single-turn wins at Gulfstream and Belmont and could pass class test with flying colors. Not sure what to do with either Amen Hallelujah or Quiet Temper - both are inconsistent while showing flashes of brilliance. With blinkers on, Indian Burn should be included for deep tickets.

Race 10, Manhattan Handicap, 1 1/4 miles turf for older runners

Either everyone is in here or everyone is out except for one. I'm going with just the one because 11 entries are just too many to play. Gio Ponti, older turf champion, has yet to score this year, but has run two sneaky good races. He loves Belmont, winning and $3.5 million in the bank is enough for me to single here.

Race 11, Belmont Stakes, 1 1/2 miles for 3YOs

No Derby or Preakness winners here, so a big evenly-matched field goes forward. I can see a case to be made for every hopeful except Dave in Dixie - overmatched, Stately Victor - overrated and Uptowncharlybrown - poorly breed for such a distance. I've been trying to get it down to less than four choices and if I could only pick one, it would be First Dude. He's the most likely candidate to go coast-to-coast ripping off 24 and change quarters along the way. Fly Down showed a great turn of foot in Dwyer and is most likely to inherit a lead at the top of the lane. Spangled Star has the breeding to get the job done and nothing else. Worth some sort of play at 30-1 or greater. Trying to like Ice Box, Drosslemeyer and Make Music for Me, but at this time will probably include the chalk, Ice Box, just in case.

The Picks:

Pick 3 (Races 6-9) - a cheap pay looking for $50 plus return: 1-5/1-3-5/2-8 for $8
Pick 6 - an affordable triple single play 1/1-3/2/2-4-5/1/2-5-6-11 for $48
Pick 4 (Races 8-11) affordable with big payoff potential 2-4-8/2-4-5-11/1/2-5-11 for $36

Good luck with all your Belmont Day wagers!

Early Scratches Changes to Wagers

Pick 3 (Races 6-9) 1-5/1-3/3-6-7-8-9 for $20
Pick 6 1/1-3/6-8/2-4-5/1/5-11 for $48
Pick 4 (Races 8-11) 3-6-8/2-4-6-8/1/2-5-11 $36

Preakness Pick

2010-05-15T06:57:00.006-04:00

My father was fond of saying, "Don't make an easy job hard." Soooooo....my Preakness pick is Super Saver. Here's why:

While his critics will be picking against him, say Calvin Borel led Super Saver through a perfect trip for the Derby, which made winning it easy, many horses get perfect trips and fail.
Derby winners have great success on Preakness day.
Here's where Pletcher and just about every other trainer's lightly raced schedule pays dividends - Super Saver will race for only the fourth time this calendar year.
Finally, Borel gets to pick and choose how he wants to go - if others go for the lead he can lay back, if no one goes for the front Super Saver has enough speed to win on the front end.

Really 5-2 would be a gift on Super Saver. I'll be playing him to win and placing him on top in exacta, trifecta and superfecta wheels. My spread will not be as wide, but I will offer myself just a bit of protection.

Preakness bets:

$10 exacta 8-12 - I like Dublin to step way up with Gomez aboard

$1 trifecta wheel 7-8/1-7-8-12/1-5-6-7-10-12 for $28 for a little protection in case it was the rider and not the horse in Lookin at Lucky's case

$1 superfecta wheel 8/1-7-12/1-5-6-7-10-12/2-5-6-9 for a $54 superfecta stab....

Good luck with all your Preakness wagers

Movin' On Up

2010-05-12T19:59:00.002-04:00

Here's two horses to consider in your Preakness bets off of less than stellar performances on Derby Day:

Garret Gomez, much maligned for his last two rides aboard Lookin at Lucky, gets aboard Dublin for the first time on Saturday. Gomez is much better suited to Dublin's late running style. D. Wayne Lukas' top runner moves up considerably based on this rider change and goes into my Preakness exacta and trifecta bets.
Jackson Bend simply got lost among the Derby throng. In a shorter field with an uncertain pace picture, he'll be much closer up and may either find himself loose-on-the-lead or tracking just off of Paddy O'Prado or whoever else wants the front.

Listed at 10-1 and 12-1 on the morning line, here are the most likely long shot candidates to hit the board. Bet on it!

One Step Up and One Step Back

2010-05-10T20:17:00.004-04:00

Let's start with the step back...

I am pleased with my Derby handicapping. I targeted seven of the 20 horses to bet with Super Saver as my top choice. In addition, I had a $1 exacta wheel totaling $12 which paid out around $76. Not even close to Turk-like payouts, but I at least go my money back on all my Derby wagers.

As usual my handicapping outweighed my actual betting. In retrospect, I simply overspread my bets. If I had stayed with my top three choices - Super Saver, Ice Box and Paddy O'Prado - I would have hit the trifecta for sure. I had included Make Music for Me in some additional double and underneath wagers, so if only...but really such 20-20 betting is for losers.

Now a quick look forward...

Last year Rachel Alexandra beat the boys after skipping the Derby. While there have been other fresh faces who have worn a blanket of black-eyed Susans most Preakness success comes from running first in the Derby. For this reason I suggest either a five-horse exacta box ($20 for each dollar bet) made up of Super Saver, Lookin at Lucky, Dublin, Paddy O'Prado and Jackson Bend. If you're feeling a little lucky I'd further suggest a Super Saver over the rest of the Dery gang over the rest of the Derby gang plus Schoolyard Dreams, Caracortado and Yawanna Twist for $24 for each $1.

Just a few thoughts before the middle child of the Triple Crown trail.

How About a Hurricane Inspired Pick 4

2010-05-01T08:50:00.003-04:00

Here's a last minute, all stakes Pick 4...

Humana Distaff:

Dr. Zinc - traveling too well of late to ignore

Warbling - big Beyer in last slop-run and 8-1

Informed Decision - in case she comes back to prior form

Cassidys Pride - huge step up and huge wet pedigree number, why not

Churchill Downs:

Country Day - another whose stock has gone up in slop - two 100 Beyers - and 15-1

Kensei - second off layoff for grade II winner

Musket Man - tough customer and held well in last year's sloppy Derby

Turf Classic - on the turf, off the turf, running on a bog???

Blues Street - gets the call for the single because I'll need lots of luck to get this far through the hail storms and he's raced well on all kinds of wet grass

Derby:

Lookin At Lucky - best of the field may overcome post for win

Super Saver - track and slop success should not be discounted

Awesome Act - don't like him, but something tells me I need to include him at least on one bet

The play for $1: 1-2-3-7/2-11-12/7/1-4-16 for $36

Channeling The Derby Fini - 2010

2010-04-29T20:38:00.005-04:00

You (the few of you out there reading this) and me should have arrived at a Derby selection. If not now, then in a few hours or days. Or as Confucius is quoted, "And remember, no matter where you go, there you are."

So my question to you is, Where are you?

I know where I've landed, so let me tell you all about...

A mainstay of handicapping a race - besides finding the winner - is to eliminate the losers. The tosses where made in a previous post, but if you're too lazy to scroll down, let's review:

Homeboykris - 150-1 would be generous

Dublin - unfortunately yesterday's news

American Lion - fighting for the lead

Discreetly Mine - see American Lion

Sidney's Candy - see Discreetly Mine

Line of David - see Sidney's Candy

Stately Victor - somehow becoming overrated at 30-1

Dean's Kitten - forgotten and probably should be

Awesome Act - thrown shoe may have been least of his problems in Wood

A few more to toss:

Devil May Care - goes because Johnny V. is available to ride, sounds like an afterthought

Make Music for Me - last minute additions, Mine That Bird aside, usually don't hit the board

Backtalk - 24 lengths back in last two graded stakes, yikes

Jackson Bend - likable little horse, but finished 8 and 9 lengths behind in last two

Those that get in (at least on the superfecta tickets):

12 Conveyance - certainly won't win, but something tells me he hangs around for small piece

3 Noble's Promise - back and forth on this one, but huge wet pedigree makes me put him in for second, third or fourth

10 Paddy O'Prado - either upset threat or pretender, Desormeaux is riding very well these days

2 Ice Box - with all the upfront speed, somebody has to close late and pass tired horses

14 Mission Impazible - speed figures going the right way and may be forgotten Pletcher horse

1 Lookin At Lucky - sure tough post, but has overcome much adversity already - gets top spot on trifecta ticket

4 Super Saver - the pick - has romped in slop and at Churchill - with crafty rider Calvin Borel getting first run on tiring speed horses

Plays rain or shine:

$1 Exacta Wheel 2-4-10/1-2-4-10-14 for $12. This is a long shot special

$1 Trifecta Wheel 1-2-4/1-2-3-4-14/1-2-3-12-14 for $42. This is including Lookin At Lucky on top just in case

$1 Superfecta Wheel 4/1-2-3-14/1-2-3-14/1-2-3-14 $24. Keeping it simple

In case you're playing on Oaks Day - 82 and sunny, thank you very much...

Starting with Race 9

$1 Pick Three: 2-3-6-7-8/1/2-3-5-8-11-13 for $30.

I'm going against singling Blind Luck in the feature, Oaks and final leg and instead singling Setsuko in Race 10 - who trainer Richard Mandella was hoping to get into the Derby and who DRF's Mike Welsch thought galloped the best this week. The Alysheba also gets a big spread with hopes of Flying Private winning it and setting up a big score....

Good luck with all your wagers!

The Draw and What It Means

2010-04-28T13:19:00.008-04:00

The Derby draw had a few surprises with first and second choices, Lookin at Lucky and Sidney's Candy drawing posts one and twenty, respectively. To me, this means you need to find your winners somewhere else.

The problem with the rail is that 18 colts and a filly will tend to come crashing down upon the rail as they break from Churchill's chute and go by the grandstand for the first time. This means a horse and rider must go immediately to establish a racing position one or two away from the rail ahead of everyone else or have to drop back and wait to make a run through traffic. I love Garret Gomez, but I would feel more comfortable with Calvin Borel up against Churchill's rail. Another problem is Lookin at Lucky will load first, will be waiting a while in the Churchill gate and may not break all that alertly.

The problem with the far outside post is that you have 19 other horses inside you working for position and horse and rider must go to establish position somewhere in the middle of the track. Once the rider, in this case Joe Talamo aboard Sidney's Candy, pushes his steed, the horse may not be able to relax and could go through a sub-23 first quarter, which in turn could lead to a sub-46 second half, which would mean whoever is on the lead will be toast. While Big Brown had no trouble two years ago negogiating some quick fractions, he did so against substandard competition. This year's group is more closely stacked together with several speed horses willing to vie for or take the lead - Super Saver (post 4), Line of David (post 5) American Lion (post 7), Devil May Care (post 11), Conveyance (post 12) and Discreetly Mine (post 15) all break inside Sidney's Candy.

Even if it's just Conveyance going alone to the front, rider Martin Garcia could stay in the four-path and force Sideny's Candy wide on the first turn. Of course one, two or all seven could go for the front leaving Sidney's Candy wide or forcing him to rate - something he's yet to do.

If you like either or both Luckin at Lucky and/or Sidney's Candy, you'll have to swallow these poor posts and hope for racing's best luck around both turns. While Big Brown was the first Derby champ to win from the grandstand, it's been a long time since the one-hole produced a winner. In fact in the last 21 runnings, there have been just two fourth place finishers (Jazil and Limehouse) and one third place finisher (Risen Star) coming from the one post.

Looking at the post position draw, I'd have to say my top five choices in no particular order are Super Saver (4), Lookin at Lucky (1), Ice Box (2), Conveyance (12) and Mission Impazible (14). More on these choices to follow either Thursday or Friday in my final Channeling of the Kentucky Derby.

Channeling The Derby Part 2 - 2010 - The Tosses

2010-04-24T22:45:00.007-04:00

For me it doesn't matter where these horses break from, who their sires were, who trains or rides them or what I thought about them two days, weeks or months ago - it's time to present my tosses. These are the colts that won't make any of my Derby tickets - multi- or single-race exotic wagers.

I'm going to start with the most difficult cut of all. This was a horse I was high on, watch break his maiden at Saratoga and had Derby dreams of: Dublin. Sometimes it is hard to separate the heart from the head, whether you're rooting for or betting on a Thoroughbred of your choosing. By Afleet Alex and trained by the once-veneable, D. Wayne Lukas I really thought Dublin would show up in a big way at Oaklawn's Derby preps. Unfortunately the excuses were bountiful, the rider was changed and then changed back and the horse just didn't pass muster in the Arkansas series. It is hard for me to fathom, but I won't include Dublin on any Derby tickets. The first cut is always the toughest.

The rest of the tosses with far less expository text....

Sidney's Candy - The second toughest cut....I've got him in a small future bet at 33-1, so I don't feel an overwhelming need to use one of the many, many pacesetters in my Derby Day wagers (I know Iisted him in my top five a few days, but things have changed, call it enlightenment, if you like)

Line of David - front runners aplenty and he isn't the fastest of the bunch

Noble's Promise - lots of grit, but not enough talent to hit the board...might not even go

Rule - working poorly and doesn't seem to have enough umph to make 10 furlongs... connections are deciding whether to enter him

American Lion - ran back to two-year-old form in Illinois, too bad two-year-old form won't hold up on May 1

Discreetly Mine - ran one big one and followed it with a fourth-place fade, another not likely rating and helping ensure stalkers/closers rule the day

Stately Victor - besides runner up Street Sense, who already had established dirt form at Churchill, the Blue Grass has become a joke since Polytrack was installed

Awesome Act - sorry I'm not sold on his European form and Gotham win was against a bunch of N1X allowance types

Dean's Kitten - really?

Homeboykris -he's in and out of all of my bets

There they are - eleven to discard in exactas, trifectas, pick threes and fours. None of this bunch scares me in the least. Of course there will be some reshuffling of the Derby deck over the next three days with decisions on Interactif, Rule, Devil May Care and even possibly Blind Luck, which will affect others like Backtalk and Make Music for Me. So after the Wednesday afternoon draw, I will reveal the ten I will bet in some fashion. I feel at peace. More on that after I hit my gong a few more times, chant and burn some incense.....

Something or Nothing...You Decide

2010-04-24T19:30:00.004-04:00

Just want to make sure you knew Calvin Borel had five winners during Churchill Downs' opening day, including an upset winner in the Derby Trial. Calvin's triumphs at Churchill are many, and his ride on Derby Day is Super Saver.

Hurricane Ike cruises home in the Derby Trial after a rail skimming ride from Borel

Channeling The Derby Part 1 - 2010

2010-04-22T08:19:00.005-04:00

I wrote the following last year and like it so much, I'm rolling it out again with just a few changes for this year's Derby...

"With just over a week to go my process of picking a Kentucky Derby winner has begun.

This takes work and should not be left to the final minutes before post, although I've seen that work from time to time...for some else. I start by reading everything and believing only some of it. I sort through morning workouts - most which will be good, some fantastic and a couple dreadful. There are no odds or payouts resulting in morning works, but this does not mean they should be completely disregared. Since I can't make it to Churchill to see Derby contenders work, I rely on The Daily Racing Form's Michael Welsch and his daily insights to help inform me...just a little.

I also know that any and all analysis will need adjustment based upon post, rider changes and weather. Better to be prepared when conditions require last minute changes, than to be caught flat-footed.

Currently I am pouring over DRF past performances in the first part of my channeling process. This is what I know:

There will be at least ten automatic tosses
With connections sending horses that are better qualified for allowance company (hello Homeboykris) or another surface besides dirt (hello Paddy O'Prado) there is a chance for real catastrophe at worst and traffic trouble at best
With so much emphasis on Eskendereya, there will be a bevy of horses at choice odds, ensuring big exotics, even if the early favorite wins"

Now, back to the future...At this point in the game I am zeroing in on my top choices - those handful of horses that will sit atop exotic wagers both vertical and horizontal. These are colts I just can't seem to ignore or live without. They are in no particular order:

Super Saver - third off the layoff here while also showing lots of talent as a junvenile...a win at Churchill doesn't hurt either.
Sidney's Candy - probably the most improved three-year-old that was on nobody's radar three months ago...big question here is will he rate? or does he have to?
Eskendereya - two monster performances make him the favorite going in, but do wins against a handful of also rans make him vulenerable?
Luckin at Lucky - has found lots of traffic in his three-year-old races, but has push-button excelerration...a must for any Derby winner.
Endorsement - sure he beat a probable miler in Conveyance in Sunland Derby, but he posted one of the few triple-digit Beyers in a Derby prep which means either another monster performance awaits or a bounce to last...I'm willing to take a shot with him.

In Part Two I will attempt to sort out exacta, trifecta and superfecta plays while sitting in the Lotus position....

A Derby Must

2010-04-20T12:47:00.004-04:00

For any interested handicapper or just Derby fan, The Daily Racing Form's clocker reports by Mike Welsch are a must - brief, informative and always telling us something.

Last year Welsch pegged Rachel Alexandra as the best worker of the week (of course for the Oaks and not Derby). He added that Rachel Alexandra would have been his Derby bet had she gone in the race. Click on Derby Workout Reports under Other Views to check it out!

Tale of Two Lexingtons

2010-04-17T09:56:00.005-04:00

I think we all can agree that today's Lexington Stakes, run thousands of miles and hundreds years apart from the historical battle that set the course for The United States of America, holds little significance for the current state of three-year-old Thoroughbreds gunning for the Kentucky Derby.

In fact, the one horse that can guarantee himself a place in the Derby starting gate with a win - Connemara - is a synthetic surface specialist whose trainer, Todd Pletcher, has yet to venture off the fake stuff with this son of Giant's Causeway and already has, I don't know, 12 Derby starters. Connemara, a tepid 5-1 co-second choice, is more likely to miss the board than hit it today.

This ragtag group of three-year-olds may remind one of the disheveled, disorganized and dangerous bunch of farmers-turned-patriots who marched towards Lexington properly pissed-off at their pompous, parliamentary adversaries in the year 1775. Of course the stakes and circumstances were just a little different that day 235 years ago, yet both had represented a stop on the march towards something more.

In two days, the people of Lexington and Concord will replay the events of that fateful day - tying up traffic and confusing lost tourists along the way. At about the same time all of the Lexington Stakes crew will be eating hay or oats preparing for something quite different from the greatest day in racing.

If I do play the Lexington Stakes in a multi-race exotic, it will go something like this in Pick Three: a single, two deep and then the all button in the Lexington Stakes. Maybe the impression of Stately Victor has me spooked, but just as I can draw a line through all the Lexington runners, I can also make a case for just about every horse winning. And why not try to be alive with all at the tail end of Pick Three? Let's see if I can get there...

Race 7 - OC 80k/N3W, 1 1/6 miles - This looks to be a chalky affair to won between Deal Breaker, Forest Attack and Canyon Drive.

As a six-time winner Forest Attack must be taken seriously winning and placing in minor stakes at Turfway Park and just missing at Keenland last year going six furlongs. Canyon Drive is stepping up in class, but may just get loose on the lead here, if Final Count isn't ready or willing to go with him coming off a six month layoff. My hope lands with Deal Breaker having just a bit more class than his rivals, saving ground patiently at the rail and making a bold run turning for home to take this event as 2-1 favorite. I'm guessing his trainer Mike Mitchell has brought this five-year-old from California for more than just a run around the track.

Race 8 - Giant's Causeway, 5 1/2 furlongs on the turf - In which we hope for a bomb, but take safety with co-favorite.

Canadian Ballet is fast period. She is the fastest mare in here and will get a clear look at her competition coming from the far post. Her trainer, Linda Rice, excels in these turf events and if one of the three speed horses in this field are likely to hold on, it's Canadian Ballet. If I get through the first leg single, the real hope here is that Valentine Fever stoutly closes on three fading speed horses and picks up the pieces at 10-1 or greater. She's the only dead-closer in the field and if they go out under 22 seconds for the first quarter, she'll have a real chance. West Ocean presents the biggest danger, but I'm looking for her to bounce coming off a course-record performance off the funky Fair Grounds turf.

Race 9 - Lexington, 1 1/16 miles - The gates open and everyone has a chance...

As stated earlier, I will hit the all button here in a 12-horse field. But if you're interested in who I like the best it would come down to these three: Krypton for winning going away at Keenland in his last; Distorted Dave because everything John Sadler sends out lately should be bet; and Kettle River who might bounce back to his impressive win two back after disappointing in the Sham.

I'll give you two Pick Threes because after writing all that, I am suddenly on the fence on what I'll do.

Scenario one: 1/2-8/All for $24

Scenario two: 1-2-4/2-7-8/1-3-11 for $27

Good luck with your wagers!

The Early Derby Line

2010-04-11T20:37:00.005-04:00

Here's The Bada Bing Earliest of Derby Lines:

Horse Bada Bing Line

Eskendereya 2-1

Lookin at Lucky 4-1

Sidney's Candy 6-1

Super Saver 8-1

American Lion 8-1

Endorsement 10-1

Ice Box 10-1

Mission Impazible 12-1

Noble's Promise 12-1

Interactif 15-1

Stately Victor 15-1

Dublin 18-1

Conveyance 18-1

Line of David 20-1

Drosselmeyer 20-1

Rule 25-1

Discreetly Mine 25-1

Dean's Kitten 30-1

Awesome Act 35-1

Paddy O'Prado 40-1

Homeboykris 50-1

Uh Oh Bango 50-1

Horses in italics may either pass or get into the Derby gate late. A possible defection of Noble's Promise would open the door for Uh Oh Bango and Drosslemeyer would find himself in the Derby gate with a win in the Lexington, knocking Uh Oh Bango back out. In a few weeks we'll see how close I've come to the real deal...

Really no surprises here and much will be made of the works before May 1, which I really don't use in my handicapping. Last year, I factored in Friesan Fire's quick work, making him my Derby favorite. The really quick three furlong work reminded me of Hard Spun's pre-Derby work a few years ago, and I thought if it worked for one Larry Jones-trainee it would work for another. Man, I was wrong. One thing to consider when factoring in workouts, either slow or fast, is trainer Jack Van Berg's words following Alysheba's slow works, "Time only matters when you're serving it."

On the other hand, I would factor in the works report on DRF.com.

Derby Prep Upsets Mean What?

2010-04-10T21:50:00.007-04:00

So the Arkansas Derby and Blue Grass Stakes upset your Derby Dreams apple cart with $82 and $36 plus winners?

My answers are well, yes and no...here's why:

Dublin and Super Saver both ran OK. In his second start of the year and reunited with regular rider, Cavil Borel, Super Saver stalked well for the first time in his career. He came to, but could not get by eventually winner, Line of David. It was an improvement off a now, sour-looking Tampa Derby with Super Saver the only horse in the top four to move forward off that race.

Dublin was looking like his was going by the top two with his regular rider, Terry Thompson, in the saddle. He really had no excuse this time. Like Super Saver he might have distance limitations. At this point, without benefit of post draws and weather conditions, I'm likely to use both underneath in Derby bets.

The Blue Grass was a debacle with one-time winner, Stately Victor, coming through at long odds - the longest in Blue Grass history. Stately Victor will likely get the same hot pace to follow at Churchill that he got today, but can he maintain his form on dirt? He is by champion Ghostzapper.

Odysseus, Make Music for Me, Pleasant Prince, Akenite and Interactif all disappointed mightily. Of these five, I was looking for strong runs from Make Music for Me and Interactif with hopes of putting them into Derby wagers. On the flip side, the word was out on Paddy O'Prado who was bet down for morning line, 12-1 to about 5-1. Desormeaux had the race stolen aboard the turf specialist with a 1/16 of a mile to go before Stately Victor marched on by. I kind of like Paddy O'Prado to fill out trifecta and superfecta tickets, if he gets in.

Today's preps did nothing to dent my, and probably everyone else's, top three: Lookin at Lucky, Eskendereya and Sidney's Candy. The next three weeks will consist of what I like to call, Channeling the Derby. More on that later...

For the record, my future bets are win wagers on Sidney's Candy at 33-1 and Rule at 20-1 and an exacta box of Lookin at Lucky/Interactif/Super Saver paying out between about $300- $1,000 for a $1 bet.

Impressions

2010-04-04T19:42:00.007-04:00

To quickly sum up this weekend's preps we saw a monster unleashed, another stopped in his tracks and finally, a roar of redemption.

The monster is of course, Eskendereya who won the Wood Memorial in what looked like a public workout. Yes, it was visually impressive (the new race day buzz word of 2010) and under nothing more than a statuesque hand ride by Johnny V. But before we annotate him the next Triple Crown champ let's remember he's beat a horse with distance limitations and questionable breeding in Jackson Bend twice and two pretty weak fields back-to-back. I'm not completely sold on his eventual favoritism.

Can't a guy catch a break? In his last three races Lookin at Lucky has been parked in the grandstands (Breeders Cup Juvenile), was forced into traffic and clipped heals (Rebel) and yesterday forced into the rail by a jock going nowhere on a 50-1 looking for vengeance (Santa Anita Derby). Despite it all, he has been nipped by a nose, then nipped back by the same nose before finishing an honorable third yesterday. He exudes class and has been battle-tested - a must for any Derby contender and likely co-favorite. For me, Lookin at Lucky gets better grades than Eskendereya from yesterday and will likely be my key horse in all Derby wagers. You should also realize trainer Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby after Santa Anita loses - twice.

And yes, American Lion came back to his earlier form and came home a winner in the Illinois Derby. What this means, I'm not sure, but he probably will add to a much anticipated and most likely contested pace in this year's Derby.

Derby Future Pool 3 - What the heck...

2010-03-28T18:54:00.005-04:00

Simply an Interactif/Lookin at Lucky/Super Saver exacta box....

Quickie Fair Grounds Pick Four

2010-03-27T14:47:00.003-04:00

Not much time to write so let me make it quick:

Race 7 Crescent City for Louisiana Breds

With the scratch of Tensas Cat, Redsugar looks like an on-the-loose single.

Race 8 New Orleans

With Stonehouse, Battle Plan and General Quarters all on or near the pace from the far outside, there is a potential for a traffic jam from the start and the possibility of a closer to come late. Let's take two out of the three from the outside: Battle Plan and General Quarters and throw in horse-for-the-course Star Guitar.

Race 9 Mervyn Muniz Jr.

A turf event, so I might as well spread with Jet Propulsion - possible coast-to-coast candidate, El Caballo to rate just off his flank, Pick Six to pick up the pieces if the pace collapses, Blues Street for getting so good at six.

Race 10 Louisiana Derby

There's plenty of pace in here, so we'll find out who can take the pressure and who will fold. Let's take take one up front and one from way back - Discreetly Mine to repeat his Risen Star feat and Stay Put to out kick Ron the Greek to the front, if too many want the lead.

The play for 50-cent: 3/7-9-10/2-4-5-8/7-9 for $12. Good luck with your plays...

Online Fantasy Dreaming

2010-03-23T20:34:00.006-04:00

Thought I might get some cheap, cheesy inadvertent hits with headline.

Anyway, while we wind up for the Derby, there are lots of contests in play - Derby Dreamer, Road to the Roses, TVG Fantasy Stable and WinStar Fantasy Derby among the many that I play. My success is decent to mixed.

At Derby Dreamer I thought I might get into the top 25 with Friesan Fire pointing toward the New Orleans this week. But it's a no-go for Friesan Fire with a foot injury, so I wallow below top 100, probably. No Derby tickets - the top prize along with $10,000. There are monthly winners, so it's a site worth checking out.

Road to the Roses is looking pretty good as my Bada Bing stable stands in 506th place out of more than 20,000 entries. I have five horses going this weekend in the three Derby preps - Sunland, Louisiana and Lane's End with a potential to break 100 points for the weekend and get into the top 200. With a few weeks left, you can still sign up and try to win a weekly prize of a $300 Visa Card, but won't have a chance for the top prize - a trip to Derby 2011.

Far too many misses at TVG Fantasy stable for me to hit the top spot and earn $2,500, but there may be a chance for a monthly prize if I choose wisely.

WinStar Fantasy Derby is the most intriguing, as I have a few horses that could emerge over the next few weeks - Make Music For Me, Stay Put (LA Derby) and Backtalk. A couple of wins from these three would put me closer to top 200 and then who knows from there???? Top prize - trip to this year's Derby.

There's time to go on line and check some of these contests out. So go out and play!

Rule Will Rule On Saturday

2010-03-19T10:20:00.003-04:00

Sure Rule is facing a bunch of newcomers in Saturday's Grade I Florida Derby, but really at 5-2 he's an underlay.

Can one of the several freshly minted maiden breakers or N1X Allowance types rise up and defeat Rule? Sure, as we all learned or were reminded with Mine That Bird last year, three-year-olds can certainly improve by leaps and bounds between starts. Rule is also vulnerable, if his connections decide to change his running tactics and have him rate off the pace - as I suspect will happen. Many horses simple resist or burn so much energy fighting a jock trying to restrain their front-running nature that they crash and burn. If Rule does toss his head about and cave anyone of number of double-digit types can win. I'm betting against such a scenario. Here's why...

Rule's got the breeding, the connections (yes, Pletcher will win a Derby someday), the talent and a winning streak that tells me Rule is a great win bet at odds of 8-5 or greater.

Derby Baker's Dozen for March

2010-03-16T17:35:00.014-04:00

Lookin At Lucky – Take a look at the 1989 Preakness, in which Pat Day aboard Easy Goer forces Pat Valenzuela and Sunday Silence into a most uncomfortable and almost catastrophic racing spot. It’s almost the same exact move Dublin’s rider, Corey Nakatani, made on Garret Gomez aboard Lookin At Lucky in the Rebel. Both Sunday Silence and Lookin At Lucky averted disaster and won with class in the tightest of photo finishes. Spectacular!

Eskendereya – the lion-in-waiting will do his thing a few weeks from now at the Big A

Sidney’s Candy – fake stuff form and speed impressive – distance and dirt questions remain

Interactif – does nothing but try hard each time out and grinders like him usually hit the Kentucky Derby board

Rule – my main Derby colt currently in a holding pattern over where to go: Florida, Sunland or Wood

Dublin – two bad trips in a row in small fields does not boost Derby confidence

Caracortado – exposed or just bounced in San Felipe loss; Santa Anita Derby and answers await

Discreetly Mine – either speed ball with enough endurance to last or merry-go-round winner that won’t take the pace pressure

Conveyance – Sunland is the right spot for this sprinter trying to outrace his breeding

D'Funnybone – with Eskendereya going to Wood this guy probably gets big shot in Florida Derby

Jackson Bend – simply getting off Gulfstream’s landing strip-like, front-runner favoring surface (how many horses get passed in the stretch in Hallandale???) may improve his performance

Super Saver – did enough to move forward off long layoff and has enough graded purse money to get into Derby starting gate; Dominguez ride didn’t help

When will horse racing get it right?

2010-03-14T16:58:00.006-04:00

Yesterday was a special and unique day in Thoroughbred horse racing. And the only people who knew it were hard core fans trackside across the country, online handicappers (bloggers included) or someone who just happened to see Zenyatta win while looking for the latest college hoop score on Sports Center on Saturday.

Why so special?

Reigning and historic Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra made her much anticipated return
Zenyatta in her first race back, since a short-lived retirement following her historic Breeders' Cup Classic win last November, going for 15 straight wins
If you missed the debate on last year's Horse of the Year and don't know about the possible Apple Blossom Stakes pitting the two famous and fabulous mares against each other, well you're just not a fan...yet.
Last year's two-year-old champion colt and early Derby favorite, Lookin At Lucky made his return to the races
For added measure, another Derby prep (for both Kentucky and Santa Anita), the San Felipe was on tap

Has there been a day like this in Thoroughbred history? Maybe, maybe not. But the point is this day went unnoticed by most sports fans. I have already given yesterday's races/stories more space than Sunday's Boston Globe.

What could have happened, if there were some centralized brains and creativity in the horse racing world - "Hello, NTRA, anyone home?" - the four races listed above could have been stacked within 10-15 minutes of each other and shown within a one hour or 90-minute long telecast. The stories abounded and the races thrilling and a champion fell. Instead of the sappy, human interest stories millions of sports and horse racing fans get each Kentucky Derby day, we could have seen a showcase of today's finest equine athletes - one right after another.

Instead, all the action was limited to fans and bettors of HRTV, TVG or Bet America or those visiting their local track or off-track-betting facility. Sadly, the only nationally organized body behind Thoroughbred horse racing (NTRA) doesn't have a clue or a thought to put such a telecast together. Heck, the NTRA couldn't even get their own act together to show the races on their website.

Finally, how about this: why doesn't a national network (ABC, NBC, CBS, FOX or ESPN) get together with an Internet Account Wagering company and put together a telecast concentrating on horse racing wagering. You know, how to bet, types of bets, betting angles, etc. A racing publication like Daily Racing Form or Brisnet could get involved. Advertisers for such a broadcast could try shilling their product at a cut rate. C'mon wouldn't this net local and national broadcast television stations more than a half and hour infomerical on an absorbent towel or blanket-jacket?????

Someone, anyone with the know-how...please....

Derby Future Pool 2 Thoughts

2010-03-07T19:51:00.005-05:00

Here are some closing thoughts on Future Pool Number 2:

Best Bets based upon odds + likelihood of winning + greater value now vs. Derby Day

American Lion - a good finish in next start gets you a for real contender

Dublin - a win in either Rebel and/or Arkansas Derby and you'll get 5-1 less on May 1

Jackson Bend - a New York state of mind may be just what this grinder needs

Rule - best bet, period

Sidney's Candy - best prospect coming from the fake stuff

Not worth it

Conveyance - 10 furlongs just too long

Dave in Dixie - too much to prove in too short a time

Odysseus - a true hedge fund, did nothing and absolutely plummeted from morning line

Vale of York - could easily have been 140-1 off his debut

Wait until Derby Day

Buddy's Saint - may bounce back, although I doubt it

Eskendereya - could be 5-1 in the Churchill gate, so why bother

Lookin at Lucky - with a misstep here or there he'll be around 10-1 anyway

Noble's Promise - c'mon 25-1 off a good showing on BC day four months ago

For the record - small win bets on Rule and Sidney's Candy

All Turf Pick 4

2010-03-05T21:39:00.004-05:00

Now here's a play worth making - the all turf Pick 4 at Gulfstream Park on Saturday. Let's simply get to it:

Race 7, Herecomesthebride, Grade III at 1 1/8 miles

I'm steering clear of favorites right off the bat. Neither the first, second or fourth place finishers from the Coconut Grove make my ticket. Instead I am making the fifth place finisher my top choice here. Upperline finished less than two lengths from long shot 'Grove winner In the Rough while making up the most ground in the stretch. Here Upperline gets another 1/16 of a mile to work with as well as getting a positive jock switch to Castellano. Well-bred and inexperienced fillies Apple Charlotte and Dynazaper also go on the ticket just in case they run up to their breeding today.

Race 8, OC 62k/N2X at 1 1/16 miles

OK so you need a single in a turf race - good luck! And really most of my published singles have been stinkers of late...but I carry on nonetheless. While it took Uncle Indy ten tries to break his maiden, it appears the six-year-old finally got the hang of things last year and simply ran into trouble in his last race and 2010 debut at Gulfstream. Breeding, pace, trip and trainer/jock numbers are too overwhelming to ignore. He'll even get a pace to run at from his good inside post, which makes it easier to swallow a chalky single in a turf route. C'mon Uncle Indy!

Race 9, Palm Beach, Grade III at 1 1/8 miles

Man, if you watched the Hallandale Beach a few weeks back and are not a fan of Bim Bam, I'm surprised. While headed in the lane by well-regarded and possible Derby contender Interactif, Bim Bam stuck his head right back in and out fought Interactif to the wire in dramatic fashion. I had the exacta box and cheered mightily as Bim Bam gave me 2x what I would have won had the finish been reversed! Much traveled Dean's Kitten and inexperienced Center Drive back up Bim Bam in case he bounces off such a hard race.

Race 10, Maiden Sp Wt 45k at 1 1/16 miles

Let's close out with four choices in a wide open race. Seriously folks in this kind of race I look to positive trainer results and they are not hard to find here. Pletcher wins at 14% clip for horses debuting over a mile - really that's unheard of so Paseo Alegro gets in. Once Hurricane Day figured things out heading towards home in his debut five weeks ago, he really ran on late. A small step forward and he's a winner. Mystic figures to be double-digit odds for Mott/Desormeaux, which is something you just don't see. Truly capable of waking up in turf debut despite lousy dirt form. Finally Beau Choix seems to be the class of this field, so I'll put him on as insurance.

There's quite a bit of chalk on the ticket, but if my handicapping is right in the first leg and I get just one more upset in legs three or four, I could finally have a decent Pick 4 payout.

The play for 50 cents: 6-7-9/3/2-6-7/3-4-8-10 for $18. Good luck with your plays!

Derby Future Pool Number 2

2010-03-04T21:07:00.005-05:00

Here's a brief primer of the Derby Future Pool #2

Aikenite (50-1) belongs on fake stuff or grass

American Lion (30-1) may have potential to bounce back or not at all

Buddy's Saint (12-1) two race preps have to be perfect; his first was less than

Caracortado (12-1) undefeated against who???

Connemara (20-1) taking overland route with a long way to go

Conveyance (12-1) would be better off running in the desert of New Mexico vs. the Middle Eastern desert

D'Funnybone (30-1) "experts" don't give him a chance, but Dutrow sees fit for FL Derby entry

Dave in Dixie (30-1) I plead ignorance - which at this point is quite blissful

Discreetly Mine (30-1) uncontested merry-go-round Risen Star win - subtract 10 Beyer points

Dublin (15-1) my love and admiration only grew stronger after Southwest runner-up finish

Eskendereya (6-1) obvious, which isn't always a good recipe for finding a Derby winner this far out

Jackson Bend (20-1) the little horse that just can't beat the big boys

Lookin at Lucky (6-1) lots of talent, see Buddy's Saint

Nextdoorneighbor (30-1) Sham tells us something or nothing; I choose the latter

Noble's Promise (30-1) who?

Odysseus (50-1) those purporting to be in the know like him; reason enough to dismiss

Radiohead (20-1) lots of upside and chatter for an allowance winner

Rule (20-1) this year's Rodney Dangerfield - "He get's no respect!"

Setusko (50-1) sounds like an offering at a sushi bar; I'll pass

Sidney's Candy (20-1) as tempting as a bowl full of M&Ms with none of the calories

Super Saver (20-1) saving his best for when???

Tempted to Tapit (50-1) rightly so...

Vale of York (30-1) less than expected in desert

Field (7-2) far more appealing than 3-2

From the mouth and backer of Maximus Ruler in Pool 1 comes these choices for Pool 2:

Rule at 15-1 or greater

Dublin at 20-1 or greater

Sidney's Candy at 25-1 or greater

D'Funnybone at 50-1 or greater

Gulfstream Pick 4, Take 4

2010-02-26T20:10:00.007-05:00

This is my fourth stab at Gulfstream's, 50-cent minimum Late Pick 4. The best I've mustered is two, three-out-four scenarios. Let's see if I can get off the snide today.

Race 7, Grade III Sabin at 1 mile

Single, pure and simple - Justwhistledixie. If you get 5-2 consider it a gift. By far the class of the field with her two biggest stakes wins coming right here at Gulfstream last year. The only graded stakes winner on dirt in the field will get a pace to run into from a likely rail stalking, ground saving trip.

Race 8, Grade II Davona Dale at 1 mile

The only knock against singling Bickersons is that she may have run too big a race in her last to duplicate another such effort. Her Grade II Forward Gal win at seven furlongs was dominating and never in doubt. If she runs anything close to that one again, forgetatabout. No other filly comes close to Bickersons on pure speed numbers, but Sassy Image may improve enough to catch the chalk if she falters. Trainer Dale Romans is winning at a 25% clip and Sassy Image pulled away from a small field in her last over the Gulfstream slop.

Race 9, Grade III Very One at 1 3/8 miles on the turf

Since none of these fillies or mares have won at this demanding distance and the late charging favorite Lady Shakespeare is parked all the way out on the 14 post, why not take a few shots?I'm taking two, double-digit fillies coming out a 1 7/16 turf race earlier this month. Both Kiawah Cat and Proud Lisa ran well coming over four month layoffs. The two finished within a length of each other tracking a very slow pace in the marathon allowance. I liked Cable in her last start enough to include her in my vertical wagers. In that race she was getting to a loose on the lead winner and will get two additional furlongs for her closing bid.

Race 10, Maiden $35,000 claimer, 1 1/16 miles on turf

What, at first, looks like an impossible condition to finish the Pick 4 is a race that really isn't that hard to handicap. From The Keep It Simple Stupid Department: Michael Maker is 29% first off the claim the last two years and has Tigresco going under that condition here. Enough said. In a seemingly paceless race, Smart Selection goes second time with blinkers and went the fastest of five workouts on February 19, so he may get a lead that he won't relinquish. For kicks and giggles why not toss in Charismaticspring at 20-1 or better just in case he runs back to his May 2, 2009 form - the last time he was on the turf and finished an OK third.

The play for 50 cents: 1/4-8/1-5-12/2-9-11 for $9. Good luck with your plays!

Who wants the lead???

2010-02-22T21:39:00.004-05:00

Answer: Just about all the Derby contenders from the last two weeks, that's who. Conveyance, Rule, Sidney' Candy and Discreetly Mine all won on the lead, which begs another question, who can rate?

Answer: A few who can - Caracortado, Eskendereya and the most interesting to me is D'Funnybone. Yea his breeding is suspect, his trainer a loud mouth and his jock, although great, is coming off a down year in 2009. So why do I like him? Dutrow is training him up to something more in distance (mostly five and six furlong works leading up to his Hutcheson win) and I would not be surprised to see him in the Florida Derby starting gate. Watch his Hutcheson and see D'Funnybone float by the competition under a hand ride going six furlongs in 1:09. And Dutrow knows how to out race a horse's breeding - just ask Big Brown's connections...

Big Derby Prep Saturday

2010-02-20T08:35:00.003-05:00

Here's the lineup:

Fountain of Youth

Chalk: Buddy's Saint, if he can run back to Nashua Beyer speed figure of 101, he'll be tough. Although, coming back from a 20-point Beyer drop and three month layoff I'm willing to take a stand against.

Who I'll cheer for: Jackson Bend, underrated, suspect breeding but his trainer, Nick Zito knows how to get three-year-olds ready.

Upset possibility: Aikenite gets his regular rider back, Alan Garcia, and will have a pace to run into, but he must overcome the track basis against such moves.

Risen Star

Chalk: Drosselmeyer's connections make him the likely favorite: Winstar, Mott, Desormeaux, but who knows how good this colt is coming off a decent allowance win at Gulfstream?

Who I'll cheer for: Ron the Greek, most likely second choice. It's hard to route against Triple Crown possibilities coming out of Remenington, Hoosier and Delta.

Upset possibility: Discreetly Mine an improving colt by Mineshaft second off layoff for Todd Pletcher will give you a good ride at 5-1 or better.

Southwest Stakes

Chalk: Conveyance gets the lead from far outside but will have his hands full with Dryfly to his inside.

Who I'll cheer for: I love Dublin's Spa form - convincing maiden win and Hopeful Stakes win - which he is likely to return to following minor surgery. Watch out Lukas is back!

Upset possibility: Cardiff Giant, one of the other Left Coast horses in town may put it all together on dirt. Then again, maybe not...

Gulfstream Cheap and Easy Pick 4

2010-02-19T20:55:00.003-05:00

Hey it's not rocket science, it's just a Pick 4. So here's my $4, that's right $4 Late Pick 4 at Gulfstream.

Race 8, Grade II Hutcheson at 7 furlongs

Two colts standout - D'Funnybone and A Little Warm. D'Funnybone could be a very special sprinter, his Saratoga Special win was well, special. He didn't belong on the fake stuff out left or at the Junvenile distance. Curiously, his works look like Dutrow, Dick that is, are setting him up for something longer. A Little Warmer got just that going fast in the Gulfstream slop in last. Dutrow, lesser know Anthony, has trained him up for a big score and his outside post and speed will suit him well on Saturday.

Race 9, Grade III Canadian Turf at 1 mile

Single pure and simple - the race, the pace and distance set up beautifully for Courageous Cat in his 4-year-old debut. He should track Jet Propulsion to his inside and possible Le Grand Cru, who is winless on green stuff. If you want to make money on this race put Vanquisher and Star Plus underneath in exactas.

Race 10, Grade II Fountain of Youth at 1 1/8 miles

Jackson Bend looks to get no respect and I'm guessing he goes off much higher than his 5-2 morning line. Until he falters, I'll play him. A nose for the wire is a beautiful thing. I'm going to take a stand against Buddy's Saint, figuring trainer Bruce Levine may be in over his head with his first real Derby threat. Instead I'll include Eskendereya at 5-1 or better. He's got the tactical speed to rate just off Jackson's Bend shoulder and pounce at the top of the lane.

Race 11, Grade III Honey Fox at 1 mile on turf

Your either going to have to spread five deep or single. I'll take the single with Romacaca who may rate just outside the overmatched Meadow Saffron or go to the front if given the chance. The only other speed that may contend comes from the 14-hole in Wasted Tears who starts her quest on the turn with 13 fillies and mares to her inside - that's a bet against.

The Play for a $1: 7-8/7/5-8/4 for $4. Good luck with your plays.

Derby Baker's Dozen - February

2010-02-17T22:08:00.005-05:00

A little rain and a little cold delaying things mid-west to the Left Coast. C'mon! In New England we're in shorts and t-shirts at 32 degrees this time of year and try shoveling 14 inches of snow! A few inches of rain making things hairy at the Great Race Place, oh that's right the racing surface is as fake as California women's chests and just not as true.....

A few notes on this month's list:

Rule looks like the real deal - certainly ran like it at Vinton, LA and Tampa, FL. With only one start scheduled before his Derby try, it better be just as good as his last two. No room for error.
Boys in waiting - Lookin At Lucky, Super Saver and Buddy's Saint will all get into action in the next few weeks or months. Let's hope their trainers planned accordingly in this era of infrequent runs to guard against the "bounce" or just about anything happening win, lose or front wraps.
Still like Dublin and his traditional three race prep schedule following surgery. I have the feeling we'll see the Spa Dublin in Arkansas.
Bottom five with big upside - Just like in handicapping looking for Homeboykris, Sidney's Candy, Wow Wow Wow, Stay Put and Eightyfiveinafifty to step up in some way in their next starts. Why not?

Derby Future Pool Number 1 Play

2010-02-14T22:02:00.002-05:00

With only a few bucks in my Internet wager account the Kentucky Derby Future Pool play for me was Maximus Ruler - $2 win. With more money in my account I may have tossed a few more win bets on Jackson Bend and Rule. Maybe future pool number 2...

Derby Future Pool Number 1

2010-02-14T15:31:00.002-05:00

OK only a few hours left on Derby Pool Number 1. If you have a few bucks in Internet wagering account like TVG, HRTV, Twinspires, etc. here's the best bets according to me:

If you think you have the Southwest winner or a horse that will show some talent in tomorrow's Oaklawn feature then bet him with both fists before tonight's 7:00 pm deadline. I like Dublin. I saw him break his maiden at Saratoga and watched his late, winning move in the Hopeful. He's got the goods and if he runs on this spring - 20-1 is a gift.
Jackson Bend is an oft-raced horse (seven starts so far) who tends to grind away toward the finish line. Moved forward in his second-place Holy Bull finish while racing first time for Nick Zito. Seems to get no respect and 25-1, is an underlay right now.
25-1 on Rule, really? Didn't anyone see yesterday's race - made the pace, took on two different challenges and pulled away through Tampa's deep, sandy stretch. He's in the Derby with graded earnings to spare, so if he's healthy, gets his grade one win (as trainer Todd Pletcher plans) and enters Churhill's starting gate on May 1, he'll be south of 5-1 on the odds board.
The best play I see on the board is Maximus Ruler at 80-1. In his third start, first off a two-month layoff, he made all the pace under constant pressure and did well to hold second in the LeComte Stakes at the Fair Grounds. He's got a Churchill win under his belt, his connections are not well know, so if he makes it to the Derby he'll probably be long odds...but not 80-1!
Lookin At Lucky is a deep overlay at 7-1. He's big and has lots of guts, but no dirt experience is still a problem for me. It also looks like he'll be facing far less on the Left Coast, as many California connections are sending their charges east to run on the real Earth.

Call me crazy, but I think this year's Derby will not be All Other Three-Year-Olds. This year's winner comes from off this board, period.

Off the Turf at Gulfstream

2010-02-13T12:56:00.002-05:00

Most of my Pick 4 is washed out with two of the races taken off the turf. Yuck.

Another Try at the 50-Cent Pick 4

2010-02-13T10:12:00.003-05:00

First let's recap: Two weeks ago only had three out of four; last week I wimped out and played an el cheapo Pick 3 and backed into a $15 payout with help of a DQ. This week it looks the late Pick 4 at Gulfstream looks pretty playable with a better than average return - that is if I'm right.

Race 7, Grade III Hurricane Bertie at 6 1/2 furlongs

I'm going to get aggressive here and single the first leg. I'm expecting to get less than the 6-1 morning line on Tar Heel Mom. Going the extra 1/2 furlong from the far outside post will suit her as she doesn't necessarily need the lead. In addition, she has several just inside of her looking to close, leaving the two- or three-path there for the taking. The only other fillies I see threatening for the lead and maybe enticing my choice into a deadly speed duel are Dr. Zic - stepping way up in class and Kays and Jays - who I'm not sure fits in here and looks to be overplayed.

Race 8, N1X 1 mile on the turf

No standout here, so lots of choices will probably fall between 4-1 to 6-1. I'll place my backing on two of these...Cruisin'nbridle and Salsa Star. Sometimes I need to remind myself to just keep it simple. Cruisin'nbridle's trainer, Michael Maker wins at a 25% clip overall, at the current meet, off the layoff and with Dominguez in the saddle. Hard to overlook. Salsa Star may get overlooked with Jeremy Rose piloting and breaking from the 11-post. Salsa Star exits the same race probable favorite Toocleverforwords, the difference is where they break (1 vs. 11), odds (2-1 vs. 8-1) and pace (pressing vs. loose on the lead). All this points me towards Salsa Star since he may win just as next time out winner Tottie did - gate-to-wire. While writing this all out, I'm thinking she just may be the real single here.

Race 9, Grade II GP Sprint Championship at 7 furlong

It's not that I don't like Munnings, actually I do like him a lot. I saw him break his maiden at Saratoga when he looked all of his $1.7 million price tag. I'll include him in the wager, but fear there's not much pace to run at. For that reason I'll include any one of three that could go gate-to-wire: Inkado at a huge price; Solar Flare who is good and sometimes great and oft-injuried Biker Boy. Of course all three going for the lead, opens the door for Motovato or Munnings.

Race 10, Clm $30,000 N3L, 1 mile on the turf

No matter how hard I try I can't get this race down to less than three choices and they are: Copper Cascade is second off a layoff and has been around the wire in three of his last four starts. D'Wildcard goes first out for Wayne Catalano who scores at 29% for first-out starters - hard to ignore. Cozzene's Destiny trainer is hot (with 10 out of 11 starters finishing first or second at current Gulfstream meet) - even harder to ignore.

The 50-Cent Play: 10/5-11/1-3-4-5-8/4-5-6 for $15

Big Derby Prep Weekend Coming Up

2010-02-10T21:56:00.009-05:00

The real running for the Kentucky Derby starts this weekend with:

The rain-delayed Grade II Robert Lewis at Santa Anita
Grade III Sam F. Davis at Tampa
Oaklawn's Grade III Southwest

Of the three races the Southwest holds the most intrigue with three defectors from the Left Coast coming aboard (Conveyance, Cardiff Giant and Domonation), last year's Hopeful winner, Dublin, Smarty Jones Stakes winner, Dryfly and an impressive maiden winner from the Big A, Moojab. Among the questions waiting answers:

Can the top three from the San Rafael duplicate their form?
Will Conveyance and/or Dryfly be able to cover the 1 mile distance together?
Is Dublin back to his Saratoga form following surgery?

Both the Lewis and Davis look like two-horse races. American Lion (thanks for the correction Amateurcapper) and Tiz Chrome at Santa Anita and Uptowncharlybrown and Rule at Tampa.

A few more pieces to the Derby puzzle will come into place this weekend...maybe? It should be fun watching.

Backing In and Breaking Out

2010-02-06T21:50:00.005-05:00

I don't like winning or losing by disqualification - never have, never will. Maybe it's because I haven't hit anything really big through a DQ. Today, I backed into my el cheapo Pick 3 at Gulfstream when Take the Points was taken down after some bouncing back and forth off Le Grand Cru and impeding (maybe) Yate's Black Cat in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. I had Yate's and was hoping he'd get through, which would have probably given me a $75-$100 Pick Three with two chalks and Yate's. Three chalks in what ended up in an $8 play that returned $15. I'll take it...

Quality Road's talent has been evident since his impressive Fountain of Youth and Florida Derby wins last year at Gulfstream. He's been devastating from 6 1/2 furlongs all the way up the classic distance of a 1 1/4. The only start in which he didn't register a triple-digit Beyer speed figure was when he was off a step slow in his second career start. That start, a hoof injury and wet tracks have kept him from being perfect.

This afternoon in the Donn he trounced an OK field without breaking a sweat while breaking his own track record. After his tour de force, it got me more interested in seeing a Rachel Alexandra/Quality Road match up because it would pit speed vs. speed. And we all know speed kills. Unless your name is Zenyatta.

Donn Day Picks

2010-02-05T21:31:00.006-05:00

Last week's Millions Day Pick Four at Gulfstream ended predictably - 3 out of 4. It ain't bad, but it don't pay. So this week, allow me to take a step back and try an el cheapo all stakes Pick 3 and spread exacta play in Race 8. When you're skating with $25 in your Internet wagering account, you've got to keep it simple.

Race 8: I really don't like the breeding, the draw and the connections of the morning line favorite Wildcat Frankie. His Beyers are gaudy, but his ability beyond 5 1/2 furlongs still can be questioned. Tossing the chalk leaves the door open for many to finish in the top, so I'l spread out with two logical choices and two bombs.

First the Logical choices - Overcommunication toyed with a small field at the Big A in his lone start. What that means, I'm still not sure. But this three-year-old is getting some winter buzz and with a big win he may end up on the trail to the Florida Derby. Soldier Field is one of, I don't know, 20 Derby contenders WinStar Farm has in the barn. Gulfstream doesn't favor his come-from-behind style, but with any kind of speed duel he has a real shot.

The Bombs: Enigmatic has run true to his name - two stinkers with a win at today's distance in between. Take heed of his connections win percentage 40% at track and 35% the last two years with a return on investment of $3.68. Tuvia's Force's human connections have similar big numbers 46% at track and 31% the last two years. This is especially noteworthy since Johnny V. is not off many Pletcher horses as is the case in this race.

The Play: $1 Ex Box 3-4-5-8 for $12.

The Pick Three is filled with two legitimate short-priced favorites and a wide-open closing leg.

Race 9, Grade I GP Turf Handicap: Court Vision is a deserving favorite, but he just doesn't win enough for my liking: three wins from his last 15 starts. The distance is also a question with his one win going 1 1/8 was in the Jamaica Handicap almost a year and a half ago. In this race last year, he couldn't get to the winner and was passed by long shot Just as Well. He goes in the play, but Yates Black Cat is my top choice at a much better price. He exploded for convincing win at the track and distance in his first start of 2010. He also has five wins at Saturday's distance.

Race 10, Grade I Donn: Try as I might, I can't find anyone to beat Quality Road. If he runs back to his Hal Hope race, which was not his best, he wins - easily. Keep it simple, take the single at even money or less.

Race 11, Grade III Suwannee River: This is a wide open turf affair. Let's get right to it. Aaroness is likely to get a good trip and if there's room at the rail turning for home, she's in the mix at 12-1. Astrologie is either a good horse with no luck or a horse that creates her own bad luck. Regardless I'm afraid to leave her off my el cheapo ticket. Indigo North finished behind two next out winners in her first start of the season going a mile at Gulfstream a month ago - that's enough for me to add another long shot to the mix. Lemonette is a mare I like, one that I seem to leave off my ticket when she runs well and bet her heavy when she comes up short. She likes to finish second (10 times from 26 lifetime starts), but gets on the ticket just in case. Tottie goes for underrated trainer Chad Brown. With seven horses likely to be within 2 lengths of each other approaching the wire, Lady Shakespeare is the last of my spread play in the finale.

The Play: $1 Pick Three 2-3/4/1-6-7-8-11-12 for $12. Good luck with your wagers!

Homer Out

2010-02-02T21:23:00.005-05:00

The first big injury of Derby contenders was reported today. Winslow Homer is out 3-6 months due to a stress fracture of his cannon bone. Too bad. I liked the way Winslow powered between horses to win the Holy Bull. Too bad because I like and often bet on Anthony Dutrow-trained horses.

As Predicted...

2010-01-31T20:22:00.003-05:00

The first allowance-winning horse getting serious Derby attention is: Drosselmeyer. The odds-on choice won in a decent time Sunday afternoon at Gulfstream, taking over mid-stretch of a 1 1/8-mile affair finishing in 1:49 and 2/5 seconds.

Drosselmeyer has some pretty good connections:

Ridden by: Kent Desormeaux (three-time Derby winner)

Trained by: Bill Mott (well-known turf trainer and Cigar's trainer)

Owned by: WinStar Farm (perennial, multiple Derby horse owners)

Sired by: Distorted Humor (Derby winner and expensive sire)

Drosselmeyer was purchased for $600,000 last year. An oh by the way, he won a mile, off the turf event, at Churchill drawing off to win by six lengths this past November.

Like one of last year's Florida-based phenoms, Dunkirk (no factor in Derby, second in Belmont) Drosselmeyer's connection will need some graded-stakes earnings to get into the Churchill starting gate on the first Saturday in May. Unlike Dunkirk, Drosselmeyer had four races under his belt as a two-year-old. (Dunkirk had none.) Stay tuned...